Waldo Cortes-Acosta vs Derrick Lewis UFC 324 Prediction - 1/24/2026
Updated July 9, 2026
The heavyweight matchup between Waldo Cortes-Acosta and Derrick Lewis could be one of the most entertaining matchups on the UFC 324 card this Saturday at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. The Dominican contender will look to reinforce his status as a top-5 contender, while the seasoned knockout artist Lewis aims to get a win and move closer to the top-5 himself. Here, I break down this heavyweight fight and give you my Waldo Cortes-Acosta vs Derrick Lewis prediction before UFC 324.
Pick: | Over 1.5 Rounds ATS PRO |
Confidence: | 3/5 |
Waldo Cortes-Acosta | Derrick Lewis | |
|---|---|---|
Age | 34 | 40 |
Height | 6’4" | 6’3" |
Reach | 78" | 79" |
Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
Record | 16-2 | 29-12 |
Waldo Cortes-Acosta enters with a 16-2 professional record and had strong results through 2025, going 4-1 during what was a busy year for the Dominican. The 34-year-old striker excels at volume striking, landing an average of more than five significant strikes per minute with solid accuracy to keep opponents on their heels. Cortes-Acosta has shown improved fight IQ and durability, absorbing power shots well, even against heavy hitters. He has not been finished in his professional career, possessing a toughness that will be tested by Lewis’s famed power.
Derrick Lewis carries some of the most feared knockout power in UFC history. With 24 KO/TKO victories on his record, “The Black Beast” can end any fight abruptly, and recent stoppages in 2024 and 2025 show that his one-punch power remains a legitimate threat. Lewis has won two straight fights by knockout going into this matchup. However, Lewis’s style often sees his cardio and pace diminish as the fight progresses. Against a younger, more technically consistent striker like Cortes-Acosta, Lewis’s power edge might be neutralized if he can’t secure an early finish.
Both fighters are known for standing and trading on the feet, and that makes this matchup especially compelling for those who want to see knockouts in the octagon. Cortes-Acosta’s youth, pace, and output volume suggest that he can grind down Lewis over the course of the fight. But in order for that to happen, the Dominican will need to make sure that he isn't knocked out early on.
As long as Waldo Cortes-Acosta can avoid getting put to sleep in the first few minutes of this fight, he should be able to outlast Lewis and pick up the win in this fight. My best bet for this matchup is for the fight to go over 1.5 rounds, as I think Cortes-Acosta will do just that, while betting the over also protects bettors against the possiblity of Lewis snagging a late-round knockout with some kind of desperation swing for the fences.
Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.
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