The Atlanta Hawks travel north to face the Toronto Raptors on Monday night in the second contest of a quick back-to-back series. After suffering a lopsided defeat in Toronto just two nights earlier, the Hawks return with a chance to respond, but a key absence could make that task tough for them. Can Toronto get a win at home to complete a regular-season sweep? Here, I break down this matchup and give you my Hawks vs Raptors prediction.
Our Hawks vs Raptors Pick
Pick: | Raptors -2.5 |
Confidence: | 4/5 |
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Atlanta Hawks @ Toronto Raptors
- Date & Time: Monday, January 5, 2026, 7:30 PM ET
- Venue: Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, Ontario
- Broadcast: NBA League Pass
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Key Storylines
- Trae Young is out for the Hawks with a quad injury, leaving Atlanta’s offense without its primary facilitator and scorer. The lack of consistent appearances from Young and Kristaps Porzingis have made it hard for the Hawks to live up to the expectations that this group had before the start of the season.
- Atlanta is fresh off a 134-117 loss in Toronto in the first leg of this series, getting outscored in the final frame after staying close through three quarters. The Hawks are 11-9 on the road so far this season but they have clearly struggled with the Raptors both at home and on the road this year.
- Jalen Johnson has been a standout for the Hawks, producing near triple-double numbers this season and recently posting an official triple-double in a win over the Knicks. He has done an incredible job of carrying the load for the Hawks while Young has dealt with health problems this season.
- The Raptors have a balanced offense with contributions from Brandon Ingram, RJ Barrett, Scottie Barnes, and Immanuel Quickley. Toronto has won three of its last four games and they find themselves in fourth place in the Eastern Conference thus far. They enjoy home court in this rematch, where the Raptors are 11-8 this year.
- The only major injury for the Raptors to worry about in this game is Jakob Poeltl. His absence will make it harder for the Raptors to protect the rim and rebound the basketball, but his absence hasn't hurt the Raptors too much this season.
Head-to-Head & Betting Trends
- The Raptors are 3-0 against the Hawks this season, winning all three of those games by double-digits.
- The Hawks are 18-19 against the spread this season.
- Toronto is 16-20 against the spread going into this game.
- The Raptors have gone under the total in 22 of their first 36 games (22-14)
- The over is 21-16 in Hawks games this year.
Best Player Props to Watch
Player | Prop |
|---|
Brandon Ingram | Over 22.5 Points |
RJ Barrett | Over 18.5 Points |
Scottie Barnes | Over 9.5 Rebounds |
Hawks vs Raptors Model Projection
Score Projection: Hawks 115 – Raptors 123
Win Probability: Raptors 62%, Hawks 38%
Final Thoughts
I will once again lay the points with the Raptors in this contest against the Hawks. It is clear that Toronto has had the upper hand against Atlanta this year and that should continue into this contest. Look for Ingram to have another big game on Monday night and for the Raptors to complete a regular-season sweep of the Hawks.
Jay Sanin
Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.
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