Cleveland Cavaliers vs Indiana Pacers Prediction & Player Props - 1/6/2026
Updated July 9, 2026
The Cleveland Cavaliers will visit the Indiana Pacers on Tuesday in a game between Central Division teams having very different seasons so far. With the Cavaliers holding a record well above .500 and the Pacers sitting at the bottom of the standings, the Cavs have already confirmed that they will not have their strongest lineup on the floor for this game. Before things tip-off in Indy, continue reading to get my Cavaliers vs Pacers prediction.
Pick: | Pacers +5.5 |
Confidence: | 4/5 |
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The Cavaliers enter this game as favorites despite missing star guard Donovan Mitchell, who is out for this game as the Cavaliers have chosen to rest him. Cleveland’s lineup has endured turnover due to injury, with Max Strus, Larry Nance Jr., Jarrett Allen, and Dean Wade all unavailable or questionable. That said, they still have offensive talent with Darius Garland and a supporting cast that can score in bunches. The Cavs are currently above .500 with a 20-17 record and are looking to inch closer to the top six in the Eastern Conference standings.
The Pacers have had perhaps the most difficult season in the league, sitting at 6-30 with the fewest wins in the NBA. Indiana has lost 12 games in a row coming into this matchup and will try to end their long losing streak here. Indiana’s roster is thin, missing core pieces like Tyrese Haliburton for the season and with key contributors like Bennedict Mathurin, Isaiah Jackson, and Obi Toppin out. This depletion has left the Pacers struggling on both ends of the court, ranking near the bottom of the NBA in offensive efficiency and being significantly outscored this season. Indiana is also just 5-14 at home and has yet to find an offensive identity that can compensate for its absences.
Player | Prop |
|---|---|
Pascal Siakam | Over 24.5 Points |
Andrew Nembhard | Over 18.5 Points |
Aaron Nesmith | Over 17.5 Points |
Score Projection: Cavaliers 118 – Pacers 116
Win Probability: Cavaliers 78%, Pacers 22%
I think that this is going to be a closer game than many would expect when you look at the records of these two teams. The absence of Donovan Mitchell is devastating for the Cavaliers, as their late-clock options are so tied to Mitchell's shot creation. The Cavs could still win this game, but I think the Pacers cover the number as a desperate home underdog.
Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.
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