Golden State Warriors vs Dallas Mavericks Pick & Prediction - 1/22/2026
Updated July 9, 2026
The Golden State Warriors will square off with the Dallas Mavericks on Thursday night in an important game for both Western Conference teams. The Warriors find themselves in the top 10 in the Western Conference, but recently suffered a key injury that they will need to overcome. They will take on a Mavericks team that is outside the top 10 out West, but is starting to find some form in the middle of the season. Here, I break down this matchup down and bring you my Warriors vs Mavericks prediction in the NBA.
Pick: | Mavericks +5.5 ATS PRO |
Confidence: | 3/5 |
Golden State enters this game amid a period of adjustment after losing veteran swingman Jimmy Butler for the remainder of the season due to a torn ACL suffered in their recent victory over Miami. Butler had been averaging around 20 points, 5 rebounds, and 5 assists before his injury, making his absence a major blow to the Warriors’ rotation.
His loss forces others into bigger roles, while also introducing questions about Golden State’s defense and overall balance without Butler's playmaking and toughness on both ends of the court. Meanwhile, Seth Curry remains sidelined with a glute injury, further limiting perimeter shooting options for the Warriors outside of Steph Curry.
Dallas has also faced injury adversity, with prized rookie Cooper Flagg recently exiting a game with a left ankle sprain. Flagg has been a major contributor for the Mavericks this season and his status for Thursday’s game is uncertain, which could significantly impact Dallas’ offensive potency. Additional Mavericks players such as Daniel Gafford, Dante Exum, and P.J. Washington have also been dealing with injuries, while Anthony Davis is also out. The absence of these contributors has forced others into expanded roles and puts pressure on the Mavericks’ depth.
Score Projection: Warriors 118 – Mavericks 115 ATS PRO
Win Probability: Warriors 58%, Mavericks 42% ATS PRO
These teams are both dealing with significant injury concerns going into this contest. But I think that the Mavs will cover the spread as a home underdog in spite of their lengthy injury list. The Warriors are not a particularly deep team and the absence of Jimmy Butler should be a real problem for them throughout the rest of the season. I project the Warriors as a winner in this game, but that the Mavs will cover the spread at home.
Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.
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