Memphis Grizzlies vs Oklahoma City Thunder Prediction & Picks - 12/22/2025
Updated July 9, 2026
The Memphis Grizzlies head into Monday night’s Western Conference showdown against the Oklahoma City Thunder as significant underdogs. The Thunder have established one of the most impressive starts to any NBA season, with a 25‑3 record and a long winning streak at Paycom Center. The Grizzlies sit at 13‑15 and are battling through one of the toughest injury situations in the NBA this season. Can Memphis overcome their injuries and shock the basketball world? Continue reading to get my Grizzlies vs Thunder prediction for Monday night.
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Oklahoma City’s early season has been nothing short of exceptional. The Thunder have built a 25‑3 record with a home record that remains unbeaten this season. They are powered by MVP‑caliber play from Shai Gilgeous‑Alexander, who has multiple 30+ point outings and orchestrates the Thunder’s high‑efficiency offense. Oklahoma City’s recent 122‑101 win over the Clippers showcased their ability to close out games with defensive pressure and offensive balance.
The Thunder's defense ranks among the best in the league, and their offense continues to pile up points in a variety of ways. Meanwhile, OKC's loss to the Minnesota Timberwolves on Friday was the product a few late‑game defensive lapses, but overall the Thunder have been brilliant on both ends of the floor.
Memphis’ story this season has been dominated by injuries. Stars like Ja Morant are listed as out with an ankle issue, and big man Zach Edey is sidelined for at least a month with a recurring ankle issue. Additionally, role players like Ty Jerome, Scotty Pippen Jr., John Konchar, Javon Small, and Vince Williams Jr. are unavailable or day‑to‑day, dramatically thinning the Grizzlies’ rotation and forcing lesser‑known options into major minutes. Even with Jaren Jackson Jr. and Santi Aldama producing strong numbers recently, Memphis’ depth and consistency have been tested.
Player | Prop |
|---|---|
Shai Gilgeous‑Alexander | Over 32.5 Points |
Jaren Jackson Jr. | Over 17.5 Points |
Santi Aldama | Over 7.5 Rebounds |
Score Projection: Memphis 107 – Oklahoma City 127
Win Probability: Memphis 15%, Oklahoma City 85%
The Thunder already have a double-digit win over the Grizzlies under their belt this season and I see no reason to think this game will go any differently. I recommend laying the points with Oklahoma City on Monday night, as the defense of the Thunder should shut down the short-handed Grizz, while SGA and company continue to light it up offensively.
Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.
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