Oklahoma City Thunder vs Milwaukee Bucks Prediction & Preview - 1/21/2026
Updated July 9, 2026
The Oklahoma City Thunder travel to Milwaukee to face the Bucks on Wednesday night at Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee. This game features an OKC team with the league’s best overall record squaring off with a below-.500 Bucks club that is trying to find some consistency. Trade rumors and injuries will both have an impact on these teams in the near future. Before this contest tips off, continue reading to get my Thunder vs Bucks prediction in the NBA.
Pick: | Bucks +9.5 ATS PRO |
Confidence: | 3/5 |
Oklahoma City remains the class of the NBA with a 36–8 record, leading the league in scoring at over 121 points per game. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is having an MVP-level campaign, averaging 31.8 points along with 6.2 assists per night. Chet Holmgren continues to provide an interior presence and the ability to score at all three levels, with roughly 18 points, 8 rebounds, and 2 blocks per game.
However, Oklahoma City is dealing with a slew of injuries. Key contributors like Jalen Williams (hamstring), Alex Caruso (groin), and Isaiah Hartenstein (calf) are all out of this contest, with others like Jaylin Williams and Nikola Topic also sidelined. Losing multiple rotation players could impact OKC's bench scoring and defensive ceiling.
Milwaukee enters at 18–24 with more questions than answers of late. The Bucks recently snapped a three-game losing streak with a 112–110 victory over Atlanta in which Giannis Antetokounmpo led with 21 points and 17 boards, though he is on a minutes restriction. Milwaukee has been inconsistent this year and has struggled to establish sustained success. On top of that, there are rumors that Giannis is going to be traded before the deadline in a couple of weeks, making things even tougher on the Bucks from a mental standpoint.
Score Projection: Oklahoma City Thunder 118 – Milwaukee Bucks 110 ATS PRO
Win Probability: Thunder 72%, Bucks 28% ATS PRO
The Thunder should get another win on the road in this game. But I do think that the Bucks will keep this game close enough to cover the spread. While Giannis is somewhat limited in terms of his minutes, some of Giannis is much better for the Bucks than no Giannis and I expect the Bucks to keep this game within single digits on their home floor.
Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.
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