The San Antonio Spurs will make the trip to Oklahoma City on Tuesday night to take on the defending champion Oklahoma City Thunder in what is becoming quite the rivalry in the Western Conference. Both teams are in the top two spots in the West standings with the Thunder holding an elite 33-7 record and the Spurs right behind at 27-12. Here, I break down this contest in the NBA and bring you my Spurs vs Thunder prediction on the court.
Our Spurs vs Thunder Pick
Pick:
Spurs +7.5 ATS PRO
Confidence:
3/5
Game Snapshot
Matchup: San Antonio Spurs @ Oklahoma City Thunder
Date & Time: Tuesday, January 13, 2026, 8:00 PM ET
Venue: Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, OK
Broadcast: NBC / Peacock
Key Storylines
The Spurs are coming off a close 104-103 loss to the Timberwolves, with Victor Wembanyama delivering 29 points and seven rebounds in his first start of 2026 after a knee bone bruise limited his minutes earlier this month. Wembanyama remains the team’s top scorer and rebounder. The Spurs' three-point shooting has been weak this month at just under 28%, a concern when facing a stingy Thunder defense.
The Thunder enter off a 124-112 victory over the Miami Heat and have won three in a row overall. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander continues to be elite, averaging nearly 32 points and more than six assists per game while extending his streak of 20-plus point games into the new year.
Oklahoma City maintains a dominant home record (19-2) but has struggled to cover spreads recently, sitting at 0-5 ATS in its last five games. Meanwhile, the Spurs have won all three prior meetings this season, including a 117-102 victory on Christmas Day in Oklahoma City. The Spurs also beat the Thunder in the knockout rounds of the NBA Cup and OKC will try to get some measure of revenge against them here.
Injuries could play a role as Spurs wing Devin Vassell is out with an adductor strain, while Thunder center Isaiah Hartenstein is also out. It will be up to both teams to overcome those absences in this huge matchup.
Head-to-Head & Betting Trends
San Antonio has beaten the Thunder in all three matchups this season, including one at Paycom Center.
OKC is 19-21 against the spread this season.
San Antonio is 21-17-2 against the spread going into Tuesday night.
The under is 23-17 in games involving the Spurs so far this year.
The Thunder are 20-20 in the over/under market going into this matchup.
Spurs vs Thunder Model Projection
Score Projection: Spurs 117 – Thunder 121 ATS PRO
Win Probability: Spurs 42%, Thunder 58% ATS PRO
Final Thoughts
I think we'll see the Thunder finally break through and get a win over the Spurs on Tuesday night. But I am not convinced at all that we will see the Thunder cover the spread here. I'll take the points with San Antonio, who clearly matchup up well against the Thunder and should be able to stay competitive with them once again in this spot.
Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.
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