Houston Texans vs New England Patriots Divisional Playoff Prediction & Odds - 1/18/2026
Updated July 9, 2026
The Houston Texans and New England Patriots will meet in the Divisional round of the AFC playoffs on Sunday. Houston got a win on the road in the Wild Card round over the Pittsburgh Steelers on Monday night. Now they hit the road again on a short prep week to try and upset the second seed in the AFC. Can the Texans' defense carry them to an upset? Keep reading to find out what I think, as I make my Texans vs Patriots prediction in the postseason.
Pick: | Patriots -2.5 ATS PRO |
Confidence: | 4/5 |
Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|
Patriots -2.5 | Patriots -146 / Texans +124 | 41.5 |
The Houston Texans' defense has been one of the best in the NFL all season long and they continued to be just that against the Pittsburgh Steelers to close out Wild Card weekend. Houston made life miserable for Aaron Rodgers and the Steelers, with the defense of the Texans scoring more touchdowns than the offense of the Steelers before garbage time. But the offense of the Texans wasn't great and will need to be better to upset the AFC's number-two seed.
New England also got a win during Wild Card Weekend, shutting down the Los Angeles Chargers in a 16-3 game at Foxborough. The Patriots held the Chargers to just 207 yards of offense in that game and it is entirely possible that the Patriots do the same to the Texans given the struggles of Houston's offense in the first round.
Neither quarterback in this matchup was all that good in the Wild Card round. The Texans got 250 passing yards, a touchdown, and an interception from CJ Stroud. But most of those yards came on three big passes to Christian Kirk and Stroud struggled outside of those plays. Houston can't afford to see a similar performance from him in this game if they want to win.
New England got 268 passing yards and 66 rushing yards from Drake Maye, whose first playoff win came with some hiccups but also some good moments. It will be interesting to see if he plays a little more freely now that he has passed his first test in the playoffs with a win over the Chargers.
Score Projection: Patriots 24 – Texans 14 ATS PRO
Win Probability: Patriots 68%, Texans 32% ATS PRO
I have no choice but to lay the points with the Patriots in this matchup. Neither team was all that impressive offensively in the first round. And while the Texans have an elite defense, there is a huge difference between playing against Mike Tomlin and a decrepit Aaron Rodgers and playing Mike Vrabel and Drake Maye. The Pats should roll into the AFC title game with a win here.
Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.
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