Monday Night Football Picks: MNF Best Bets For Texans vs Steelers
Updated July 9, 2026
Monday Night Football this week features the Houston Texans and Pittsburgh Steelers on Wild Card Weekend. This is the final Monday Night Football game of the season and it is set to be a good one, as both of these AFC teams look to punch their ticket to the Divisional playoffs. Before kickoff, check out my Monday Night Football best bets for this week below.
My best bet for Monday Night Football this week is for the Houston Texans and Pittsburgh Steelers to stay under 38.5 points. These teams both have very good defenses, especially with TJ Watt back on the field for Pittsburgh. Expect both quarterbacks to be uncomfortable throughout this matchup and for the under to cash to close out what should be an exciting weekend of Wild Card games.
When it comes to Monday Night Football picks, trust is everything, and that’s where we excel. With years of experience analyzing NFL matchups, we’ve built a reputation as a go-to source for accurate and actionable betting predictions. Whether you’re a seasoned bettor or new to NFL wagering, our comprehensive Monday Night Football betting insights are designed to empower you with the knowledge needed to make confident decisions. From in-depth statistical analysis to expert opinions, we leave no stone unturned to help you navigate the complexities of Monday Night Football betting.
As the final showcase of each NFL week, Monday Night Football garners unparalleled attention from fans and bettors alike. With millions tuning into a single matchup, it’s the ultimate stage for exciting plays and smart wagers. Our team combines decades of expertise, real-world betting experience, and a proven approach to bring you the most reliable Monday Night Football picks. Check back weekly for our detailed predictions, complete with the reasoning and data to back them up, so you can approach every Monday night with confidence.
Every football game is unique, and Monday Night Football is no exception. That is why our team of expert NFL handicappers treats MNF as uniquely as it should be, allowing them to give you best bets that have the best chance to be profitable on a regular basis. Be sure to bookmark this page and come back to it each week to get our best Monday Night Football bets this week, and each subsequent week throughout the year.
When handicapping Monday Night Football, there are a few key differences between Monday night games and other games that have to be taken into consideration. Fortunately for bettors, we make sure to do exactly that, understanding the differences between this standalone game and some of the other games on the schedule on a weekly basis.
One thing bettors need to know right off the bat with Monday Night Football is that the quality of the game may not be as consistent as Sunday Night Football, as ESPN does not get the first pick of games to put on their platform. The result is often a lot of teams from bigger media markets that might not be as good at football as the teams you see in other primetime slots, which is at least worth keeping in mind when betting this game.
Something that must be taken into account when making Monday Night Football picks is that both teams get an extra day of rest. And while both teams do get that extra rest, that extra day can impact each team very differently. Teams that are particularly banged up can really use the extra recovery time, and teams with more complex gameplans can use that extra day to implement more wrinkles. But every team will use that extra day differently, and that is worth thinking about.
Beyond just the result of the Monday Night Football game in question, playing on Monday can have an impact on future games. Teams who play on Monday, then have to play on the next Sunday, have less recovery time going into the following week’s action. That can often lead to a letdown in performance level the following time they take the field, though that can also vary drastically from one team to the next.
Strategy is key when betting on football, and that is especially true when Monday Night Football is involved. Bettors can use the following strategies to improve their chances of making money on Monday nights. These are a few of the strategic ideas that we utilize to place the best Monday Night Football bets on a regular basis.
With Monday Night Football more than any other football game, you are going to hear a ton of noise about the game from sports media. On Monday, that is the game everyone is talking about. But blocking all of that noise out and trusting the research you have done on this game is imperative to Monday Night Football betting success. Of course, you can also trust our handicapping for this game on a weekly basis.
With standalone NFL games, bettors can feel compelled to put together Same Game Parlays more often, as there are not multiple NFL games with which to craft parlay wagers. But doing this can drastically reduce the chances of you making money on MNF, as Same Game Parlays are much harder to win than straight bets. If your breakdown of a game leads you to some smart angles for a Same Game Parlay, that’s fine, but don’t feel obligated to force them.
On Mondays, and every other day, bettors should make sure to exercise smart bankroll management. It is not smart to use Monday Night Football to chase previous losses or to bet more than usual. Instead, bettors should stick to the same budget for every game, to give themselves the best chance to turn a profit in the long run.
Here at ATS, we offer NFL bettors so much more than Monday Night Football betting picks. Bettors can click on the links below to get all of our NFL picks for the week, including Thursday and Sunday action to go with these Monday night predictions.
Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.
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