Buffalo Bills vs Cleveland Browns Pick & Prediciton - 12/21/2025
Updated July 9, 2026
The Buffalo Bills (10-4) are set to visit the Cleveland Browns (3-11) on Sunday in Week 16 of the NFL season. The Bills are coming off a huge win over the New England Patriots and Buffalo is still alive in the AFC East race. Cleveland is eliminated from playoff contention and trying to build for the future behind rookie quarterback Shedeur Sanders. Before kickoff from Cleveland, my Bills vs Browns prediction can be found right here.
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Buffalo arrives in Cleveland with momentum after a 35‑31 comeback over the Patriots in which they came back from a three-touchdown deficit. Quarterback Josh Allen delivered a three‑touchdown performance and showed his dual-threat capability, contributing significantly with both his arm and legs. The Bills remain in contention in the AFC East and will be hungry to keep pressure on the Patriots with a win here.
Buffalo will be without their starting kicker Matt Prater, who has been ruled out due to a right quadriceps injury, prompting the signing of Michael Badgley as a replacement for this week’s contest. Special teams instability could be a problem on the road against a Browns team that has one of the best pass rushes in football.
Cleveland is simply looking to salvage respectability in a tough season as they try to contain Buffalo’s dynamic offense. The Browns lost their third game in a row last week, taking a 31-3 loss on the road against the Chicago Bears in Week 15. Cleveland has given up over 25 points in three straight games and will have their hands full with Buffalo's offense in this game.
Josh Allen has been the catalyst for much of Buffalo’s success, operating a high‑octane offense that ranks among the more productive units in the league. Allen is in the MVP race again this year after winning the award last season and he will try to make a difference again this week after dragging the Bills back from the dead against New England last week.
Cleveland’s Shedeur Sanders threw three interceptions against the Bears last week. He has five touchdown passes and six interceptions during his time on the field this year. Those growing pains are to be expected and should not prompt overreactions. Still, Sanders will try to be better this week at home against the Bills.
Score Projection: Buffalo Bills 28 – Cleveland Browns 17
Win Probability: Buffalo Bills 82%, Cleveland Browns 18%
The Bills should win this game handily on the road against Cleveland. But I'm not willing to lay the 10 points with Buffalo here. Instead, I'm leaning toward the over as the best play in the betting markets for this matchup. Buffalo should move the ball against the struggling defense of the Browns, while Cleveland will do just enough through the air to get us to the total.
Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.
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