Jacksonville Jaguars vs Denver Broncos Preview & Prediction - 12/21/2025
Updated July 9, 2026
The Jacksonville Jaguars will head to Empower Field at Mile High to take on the Denver Broncos on Sunday. This Week 16 matchup features two teams with double-digits in the win column with three weeks left to play in the regular season. Denver enters with an NFL-best 12‑2 record and hopes to strengthen its hold on the AFC West and secure the AFC's top seed. The Jaguars sit at 10‑4 and will try to keep their hopes of earning the top seed alive with a win. Before kickoff from Denver, you will find my Jaguars vs Broncos prediction right here.
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The Broncos have surged to the top of the NFL standings with a 12‑2 record. They have had success on both sides of the ball, and the team is riding an 11-game winning streak into this important AFC game. They have clinched a postseason berth and lock up the top seed in the AFC playoffs with a victory. However, Denver recently placed safety Brandon Jones on injured reserve, which could affect the secondary’s performance against a Jaguars passing attack that has been effective this season.
Jacksonville has been one of the hottest teams in the league, winning five straight games and asserting itself as a contender in the AFC. The Jaguars’ Week 15 win over the New York Jets was highlighted by quarterback Trevor Lawrence’s standout performance. He threw five touchdowns and added a rushing score, propelling the offense to 48 points. Though they are underdogs on the road, Jacksonville has proven capable of scoring in bunches and could challenge Denver in this high‑stakes game.
Trevor Lawrence continues to elevate his game, posting impressive yardage and touchdown numbers during Jacksonville’s recent surge. He has thrown for over 3,200 yards, 23 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions and will try to lead his team to a statement win late in the regular season this weekend.
Denver’s Bo Nix has nearly identical numbers to Lawrence this season. Nix has just over 3,200 yards as well, with 23 touchdowns and 9 interceptions. The battle between these two signal‑callers will be crucial, as turnovers and execution under pressure could decide the final result.
Score Projection: Denver 27 – Jacksonville 21
Win Probability: Denver 58%, Jacksonville 42%
This might be the best game on the Sunday slate in the NFL this week. I am leaning strongly in the direction of the Broncos here, as their home-field advantage and elite defense should combine to make life a lot more difficult on Trevor Lawrence than it has been in recent weeks.
Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.
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