Jacksonville Jaguars vs Houston Texans Prediction - 11/9/2025
Updated July 9, 2026
The Jacksonville Jaguars and Houston Texans will meet in Week 10 of the NFL season in Houston. Quarterback health is the big story going into this game, with the Texans having to overcome the absence of their starting signal-caller. Before this game kicks off from NRG Stadium, continue reading to get my thoughts on this matchup and to get my Jaguars vs Texans prediction.
Houston takes a big hit offensively with starting quarterback C.J. Stroud ruled out with a concussion. Backup Davis Mills must step in after finishing out the team's Week 9 loss to the Denver Broncos. Houston struggled offensively once Stroud went out and they were held to just 15 points over the course of that game. Mills will have more time to prepare to lead the Texans' offense this week but that might not be enough to offset the downgrade in talent from Stroud.
Jacksonville ended a two-game losing streak with a 30-29 win in overtime over the Las Vegas Raiders last week. Both teams scored a touchdown in overtime in that game, with the Jags stopping a two-point conversion attempt from Las Vegas to seal the win. The Jaguars will need to be better on defense this week and will like their chances of doing so against Mills and the Texans.
Davis Mills will get the start for Houston in the place of the injured Stroud. Mills completed 17 of his 30 pass attempts last week for 137 yards with no touchdowns or interceptions. Mills' top priority will be avoiding turnovers, but he also needs to be more aggressive to get the Jaguars' defense off-balance in some way.
Trevor Lawrence has had his ups and downs this season. But he has more touchdowns than interceptions and the Jaguars’ defense has manufactured turnovers at a rate that compensates for any of his offensive inconsistencies. Lawrence gives the Jags an advantage at quarterback in this game as long as he can avoid throwing interceptions.
Score Projection: Jacksonville 20 – Houston 17
Win Probability: Jacksonville 58%, Houston 42%
The Jaguars should find a way to win again this week to complete a regular-season sweep of the Texans. Davis Mills has had plenty of opportunities to run the show at quarterback for the Texans. Those opportunities have not gone well for Houston in the past and I don't expect things to go well for them here either. I'll lay the points with the Jags on the road in Week 10.
Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.
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