Kansas City Chiefs vs Denver Broncos Prediction - 11/16/2025
Updated July 9, 2026
The Sunday afternoon matchup between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Denver Broncos is an important game in the AFC West race. The Chiefs (5‑4) travel to Denver to face the Broncos (8‑2) at Empower Field at Mile High with the Broncos in first place in the division standings. That spot has been occupied by the Chiefs in recent years and the Chiefs will try to get a win to move closer to the Broncos going forward. Before kickoff from the Mile High City, you can find my Chiefs vs Broncos prediction below.
Chiefs signal‑caller Patrick Mahomes has thrown for 2,349 yards, 17 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions so far this season. His efficiency remains high and he thrives in big games and high-pressure environments. The Chiefs’ offense is ranked 5th in passing yards (248.9 per game) and the return of Rashee Rice has made life easier on Mahomes of late.
Broncos starting quarterback Bo Nix has thrown for 2,126 yards, 18 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions. His team‑leading rushing back J.K. Dobbins has 772 yards and 4 touchdowns on the ground, but Dobbins is out and young running back RJ Harvey will have to carry the load in his place. Nix will also have to find a way to help make up for the loss of production in the running game in Dobbins' absence.
Score Projection: Kansas City 28 – Denver 27
Win Probability: Kansas City 64%, Denver 36%
We should see a tight game between these AFC West rivals on Sunday afternoon. As far as the outcome is concerned, I'd lean toward the Broncos covering the spread as an underdog at home. Mahomes and the Chiefs will likely pull this one out late, but the Broncos will keep the margin inside of a field goal in a game the home underdog could very well win outright.
Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.
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