Kansas City Chiefs vs Las Vegas Raiders Pick & Preview - 1/4/2026
Updated July 9, 2026
The Kansas City Chiefs conclude a challenging 2025 season with a Week 18 trip to face the Las Vegas Raiders on Sunday. Both teams have struggled throughout the year, but this contest offers both sides one last chance to get a win before the offseason. The Chiefs have compiled a 6-10 record and will be without star quarterback Patrick Mahomes, while the Raiders could lock up the top spot in the next NFL Draft with a loss. Here, I break down this conetst and give you my Chiefs vs Raiders prediction from Sin City.
Pick: | Chiefs -5.5 |
Confidence: | 4/5 |
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The Chiefs enter this season finale after a disappointing campaign by their standards. Missing the playoffs for the first time in a decade and dealing with a slew of injuries this year has forced them into a rare lost season. Head coach Andy Reid has expressed his desire to return for the 2026 campaign, but the team’s offensive identity has been disrupted by the absence of Mahomes who remains on the mend with a knee injury. Their recent 20-13 loss to the Broncos showcased their offensive struggles with several starters out of the lineup.
The Raiders have endured a difficult year under head coach Pete Carroll, with their offense hampered by injuries to key pieces and poor play from quarterback Geno Smith. But there is a light at the end of the tunnel for the Raiders. A loss in this contest would secure them the top overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft and potentially allow them to draft a new quarterback to serve as the face of their franchise.
Kansas City is expected to start Chris Oladokun under center with Mahomes unavailable as he rehabs his knee injury. Oladokun has played over the last couple of weeks and has a limited skill set when compared with Mahomes’ elite production.
The Raiders could be without Geno Smith due to a high ankle sprain, leaving them to turn to Kenny Pickett or another backup to lead an offense that has struggled to generate consistent offense throughout 2025.
Score Projection: Kansas City 24 – Las Vegas 13
Win Probability: Chiefs 72%, Raiders 28%
The Raiders have made it apparent that their top priority right now is to keep losing games and to secure the top pick in the draft. I think they will succeed in achieving that goal, as they should keep struggling offensively, while the Chiefs play with some pride in the final game of their season without Mahomes at the helm.
Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.
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