Kansas City Chiefs vs Tennessee Titans Prediction & Pick - 12/21/2025
Updated July 9, 2026
The Kansas City Chiefs (6‑8) will face the Tennessee Titans (2‑12) on Sunday in a game that is packed with storylines. Both teams will enter Nissan Stadium in Nashville having been eliminated from playoff contention. This is the first game in a long time that the Chiefs are playing that won't come with Super Bowl aspirations attached to it. Before this Week 16 matchup begins in the AFC, you can find my Chiefs vs Titans prediction here.
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This Week 16 contest features plenty of interesting narratives. Kansas City enters having just been eliminated from the playoff hunt following a loss to the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 15. In that defeat, star quarterback Patrick Mahomes suffered a torn ACL and LCL, ending his season. That has triggered an immediate shift in betting lines and expectations for this Sunday’s game. With Mahomes sidelined, backup quarterback Gardner Minshew will make the start.
Tennessee sits at the bottom of the AFC South with a 2‑12 record and hopes of a first home victory this season have grown with Mahomes out for the Chiefs. The question going into this game is whether or not the Titans can get enough stops to win this game, even with Mahomes out of commission for the Chiefs in this contest.
Mahomes’ season‑ending knee injury forced him out late in Week 15, thrusting Gardner Minshew into the starting role for Sunday’s game. Minshew completed 3/5 pass attempts for 22 yards in limited action in place of Mahomes. He will have more of a chance to prove himself in this matchup.
Tennessee’s offense is led by quarterback Cam Ward, whose performance has been pretty disappointing this year. But there is an argument to be made that Ward is not the worst quarterback on the field in this matchup, as he looks to bring the Titans to their third win of the year.
Score Projection: Chiefs 20 – Titans 21
Win Probability: Chiefs 50% | Titans 50%
The Chiefs' offense wasn't great this season with a healthy Patrick Mahomes. Without Mahomes, who knows what we are going to see from Kansas City when they have the ball. I'm going to take the points with the Titans here, but the motivation being nonexistent for both of these teams makes this game hard to feel confident about in the betting markets.
Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.
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