Las Vegas Raiders vs Houston Texans Prediction & Best Bet - 12/21/2025
Updated July 9, 2026
The Las Vegas Raiders and Houston Texans on Sunday in a game between teams going in opposite directions in the NFL. The Texans enter this Week 16 contest at NRG Stadium with momentum on their side, riding a six-game winning streak and sitting in the hunt for an AFC South title with a 9-5 record. The Raiders have struggled all season, sitting at the bottom of the AFC standings with only 2 wins and 12 losses. Here, I examine this game from all angles and make my Raiders vs Texans prediction before the action begins at NRG Stadium.
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Two teams having very different seasons will square off. The Texans have been one of the more consistent performers in the second half of the season, winning six straight games and improving to 9-5. A 40-20 victory over the Arizona Cardinals in their latest game allowed Houston's defense to shine again, with their defense being among the best in the NFL this season. Houston’s offense has found rhythm under quarterback CJ Stroud, while wide receiver Nico Collins continues to be a go-to target, pushing toward another 1,000-yard season.
Meanwhile, the Raiders have been beset by offensive woes, dropping eight straight and getting shut out in their recent shutout loss to the Eagles. Las Vegas’ defense, led by standout Maxx Crosby, creates splash plays but has not been enough to keep the team competitive overall.
The Raiders enter this week in a three-way tie for the worst record in the NFL at 2-12. More losses would help the Raiders' chances of picking first in the upcoming NFL Draft, and Las Vegas is expected to take another loss here as two-touchdown underdogs.
CJ Stroud’s development has been a huge factor in Houston’s surge. Stroud has posted multiple games with three touchdowns and has consistently put up yardage in quality starts since returning from a concussion. His rapport with Collins and his tight ends gives the Texans multiple options in the passing game. The Raiders’ quarterback situation has been less stable, with Geno Smith throwing nearly as many interceptions as touchdowns.
Score Projection: Texans 28 – Raiders 7
Win Probability: Texans 88%, Raiders 12%
All signs point toward a comfortable victory for the Texans in this Week 16 matchup. Their defense has been dominant throughout the season and they should shut down Smith and the rest of the Raiders offense in this spot. My best bet for this game is the under, though I can understand any bettor who would prefer to back the Texans against the spread instead.
Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.
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