Las Vegas Raiders vs Indianapolis Colts Pick & Prediction - 10/5/2025
Updated July 9, 2026
The Indianapolis Colts will host the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 5 of the NFL season on Sunday afternoon. Daniel Jones and the Colts suffered their first loss of the season against the LA Rams last week. They will look to bounce back against a Raiders team that is riding a three-game losing streak. Before kickoff from Lucas Oil Stadium, continue reading to get my Raiders vs Colts prediction for this weekend's action.
Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|
Colts –6.5 | Colts –280 / Raiders +230 | O/U 47.5 |
The Colts’ 3–1 start has seen them exceed all expectations going into the year. They suffered their first loss of the season to the LA Rams in Week 4 and I will have my eyes peeled to see how they respond to their first bit of adversity in the 2025 season.
The Raiders are 1–3 and have now lost three straight, including a 25–24 loss to the Chicago Bears in Week 4. Turnovers and a blocked kick proved to be too many mistakes to overcome for Las Vegas in that game. The question will be whether Geno Smith and company can clean things up while hitting the road to face a red-hot team this week.
Daniel Jones has been lauded for bringing consistency to a Colts offense that lacked reliable play under center in recent seasons. He currently has 1,078 passing yards, four touchdowns, and two interceptions. He’s completing a high percentage of his throws and taking what the defense gives him. His success in this new system has fueled Indianapolis’ strong start and he will look to keep it going this week.
Geno Smith has had a rollercoaster of a start to the season for the Raiders. He has thrown for 948 yards, six touchdowns, and seven interceptions. His decision-making under pressure has been suspect, especially behind an offensive line that ranks poorly in protection metrics. He needs to avoid turning the football over if the Raiders are going to end their current losing streak.
Score Projection: Colts 28 – Raiders 17
Win Probability: Colts 68%, Raiders 32%
The Colts enter this game as a clear favorite, and rightfully so. Their offense has been operating much more cleanly than that of Las Vegas and I expect that to continue to be the case in this contest as well. I will lay the points with Indianapolis here, as they should bounce back from their first loss of the season now that they are back at home.
Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.
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