New England Patriots vs Denver Broncos AFC Championship Prediction & Odds - 1/25/2026
Updated July 9, 2026
The Denver Broncos and New England Patriots are the last two teams standing in the AFC and they will face off in the AFC Championship Game in Denver on Sunday. Both teams have been the best in the AFC throughout this season and will try to prove that they belong in Super Bowl LX with a win here. Before kickoff from the Mile High City, continue reading to get my Patriots vs Broncos prediction below.
Pick: | Broncos +4.5 ATS PRO |
Confidence: | 4/5 |
Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|
Patriots -4.5 | Patriots -225 / Broncos +188 | 40.5 |
The New England Patriots reached the AFC title game with a pair of home wins in the playoffs. They shut down the Los Angeles Chargers on Wild Card Weekend before surviving a turnover-filled affair against the Houston Texans in the Divisional Playoffs. The Patriots' defense forced a ton of turnovers against CJ Stroud, including a first-half pick-six. But Drake Maye and the New England offense must take better care of the ball to win this game and reach the Super Bowl.
The Broncos traded the lead back and forth with the Buffalo Bills in the Divisional Playoffs, but Bo Nix and the Broncos held their nerve while the Bills unraveled in the extra period. Denver won a 33-30 shootout over the Bills to reach this stage, avenging their playoff loss to the Bills a season ago. Now the question is whether the Broncos can take one more step to win the AFC and make it back to the Super Bowl for the first time since Peyton Manning and Von Miller led them there a decade ago.
Most important in this game will be the quarterback play on both sides. This is the first AFC Championship Game appearance for both Drake Maye and Jarrett Stidham. Stidham is also contending with the fact that he was not ever expecting to be the starter for this game. But he is now called upon to replace Bo Nix, who suffered a season-ending injury in overtime against the Bills, and he will have his hands full against a quality opponent in his return to on-field action.
Score Projection: Patriots 24 – Broncos 21 ATS PRO
Win Probability: Patriots 52%, Broncos 48% ATS PRO
I am going to take the points with the Denver Broncos at home in the AFC Championship Game. The Broncos are good enough on defense to make life tough on an inexperienced quarterback in Maye. We should see some nervy mistakes on both sides, especially from Stidham, but for this to be a one-possession game where the home dog covers.
Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.
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