New Orleans Saints vs Atlanta Falcons Prediction & Preview - 1/4/2026
Updated July 9, 2026
The New Orleans Saints will travel to face the Atlanta Falcons on Sunday in an NFC South showdown to close out the regular season for both clubs. The Falcons hold a slight edge in the standings, but both teams have played well late in the season and will try to squeeze in one last win here. Before kickoff from Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, continue reading to find my Saints vs Falcons prediction.
Pick: | Falcons -3 |
Confidence: | 3/5 |
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The Saints enter this contest with momentum after winning four consecutive games, a turnaround fueled by improvement at quarterback and on defense. Rookie quarterback Tyler Shough has taken command down the stretch, giving New Orleans a 333-yard, two-touchdown performance in a recent comeback win over the Titans. Wide receiver Chris Olave has emerged as a consistent top target, surpassing 1,000 receiving yards for the season, and tight end Juwan Johnson has also been a reliable chain mover.
The Falcons have endured a more up-and-down year, dealing with a season-ending injury to quarterback Michael Penix Jr. and turning to veteran Kirk Cousins under center. Cousins has provided stability and has guided Atlanta to several three straight wins, including a dramatic win over the Los Angeles Rams on Monday Night Football in Week 17. Running back Bijan Robinson remains a foundational piece of the Falcons’ offense, pacing the team with over 1,400 rushing yards and seven rushing touchdowns. Robinson is also a key part of the Atlanta passing game along with tight end Kyle Pitts.
Tyler Shough has steadily improved as the Saints’ signal caller, getting over the 2,000-yard mark through the air in his rookie campaign. Shough’s late-season surge has injected confidence into the Saints’ offense and has them thinking they have found their quarterback of the future.
Atlanta’s Kirk Cousins brings veteran savvy to this matchup. He has six touchdown passes and just one interception across his last three games for Atlanta and Cousins will try to earn himself a starting quarterback job somewhere with one last strong performance in this game.
Score Projection: Saints 23 – Falcons 27
Win Probability: Saints 48%, Falcons 52%
Both of these teams are playing well and this should be a highly entertaining regular season finale in the NFC South. I lean toward the Falcons getting the win and covering the spread here, as the Falcons are operating at a high level offensively thanks to some nice balance between airing it out with Cousins and relying on Robinson on the ground.
Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.
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