Free NFL Teaser Picks & Predictions for the Conference Championships
Updated July 9, 2026
The NFL's conference championships are here and that means another chance to put together winning NFL teaser picks this week. This week, we have teased two underdogs to more favorable numbers and we will hope that they can cover their teaser lines to cash our ticket. Below you will find my NFL teaser best bet and you can come back every week of the season for more teaser action.
Our NFL teaser for the conference championships will start with the Denver Broncos covering their teaser line as an underdog against the New England Patriots. The Broncos are at a disadvantage in this game with Bo Nix set to miss the game with a season-ending injury. But Jarrett Stidham is capable enough to play respectably here and the defense of the Broncos should help keep them within a possession or so.
Then, we will take the Los Angeles Rams to stay within 8 points of the Seattle Seahawks on Sunday night. The Rams have gone on the road and won outright in each of the first two rounds of the playoffs. The Rams have a huge advantage at the quarterback position in that game and I expect Matt Stafford to put the Seahawks on upset alert with the NFC title on the line.
Are you looking for profitable NFL teaser picks to help you win NFL bets this season? With over a decade of experience in sports betting, I’ve consistently identified winning teaser combinations that have delivered impressive results. NFL teasers are a smart way to adjust point spreads or totals in your favor, and each week, I analyze the matchups to help you make optimal teaser bets.
These recommendations are based on proven methods and an in-depth analysis of the betting lines. In addition to my weekly top teaser pick, I’ll also provide a breakdown of each leg of the teaser. Whether you're a seasoned bettor or exploring teasers for the first time, you can count on expert advice and trustworthy insights to help maximize your betting success.
NFL teaser picks are wagers consisting of two or more sides or totals, all of which must win in order for the bettor to have a winning bet. The bettor is allowed to move the point spread a total 6-7 points in either direction they choose.
The more points a bettor wishes to move the odds, the lower the payout will be. For example; a three-team, 6-point teaser will return +160 ($16 profit for every $10 risked), while a three-team, 7-point teaser will return +120 ($12 profit for every $10 risked). For full payout odds see the table below.
The biggest advantage to betting on NFL teaser picks is the fact you’re allowed to move the line in either direction of your choosing. That allows you to look for certain situations where you can use the line move to its fullest advantage, such as the 2021 Minnesota Vikings, who were 5-4 ATS as an underdog, but 8-1 when used in a 6-point teaser.
As oddsmakers and bettors have gotten wiser over the years, teasers have gained acceptance among sharp bettors. Once thought of sucker bets, teasers are now bet by most of the respected sports bettors out there. Any time a final score falls within 5.5 points of the point spread, teasers bettors on both sides of the game are going to have a win on that leg of the teaser.
The biggest drawback to teasers is that all of your teaser selections must win or you have a losing bet. Correctly picking 5 of 6 games in a teaser has the same end result as going 0-6. You lose you wager.
BetMGM is a solid name in the world of online betting and an excellent choice for those looking for a big score. BetMGM offers up to15-team teasers, which pay out at a hefty 150-to-1 for a 6-point teaser. Other sportsbooks have better prices on two-team teasers than the -130 offered at BetMGM, but BetMGM makes up for it once you get to 7-team teasers and higher, offering better payouts than other sportsbooks.
Caesars Sportsbook formerly William Hill, which happens to be one of the most respected names in sportsbooks worldwide. Caesars sportsbook offers the standard -120 on two-team, 6-point teasers and go all the way up to 10-team teasers. You can only tease sides at Caesars.
DraftKings is one of the giants in the online betting world and offers standard NFL teasers up to six legs. A two-team, 6-point NFL teaser is -120, which is what bettors should look for. DraftKings does offer a 3-team, 10-point teaser at -120 odds, and a 4-team, 13-point teaser at -140, although ties do lose on the “Super” and “Monster” teasers.
Bet365 was founded in the U.K. In 2000, so despite not yet having a huge presence in the United States, the company knows its way around the block. The company is one of the largest bookmaking operations in the world. For teasers, Bet365 frequently used teaser cards, where the lines are fixed, as well as alternate line parlays, which many times will yield higher returns.
For more Teaser sportsbook & betting site information, checkout the ATS.io Best Sportsbooks for Teasers page.
Creating a teaser is a simple process of taking the point spread or total and moving it in any direction you choose. If the Chiefs are favored by 5 over the Broncos and the total is 46, bettors can choose to move the point spread to Kansas City +1 or Denver +11 with a 6-point teaser. A 6.5-point teaser would allow the bettor to take Kansas City +1.5 or Denver +11.5, while a 7-point teaser allows bettors to choose Kansas City +2 or Denver +12. For the total, 6-point teaser bettors can choose to take over 40 or under 52, while those choosing a 7-point teaser could take over 39 or under 53.
Taking a 7-point teaser costs the bettor more in terms of odds than a 6-point or 6.5-point teaser. Teaser odds are determined by the individual sportsbooks, but the majority of them will have similar odds. The most common odds for teasers are:
# Of Teams | 6-point teaser | 6.5-point teaser | 7-point teaser |
|---|---|---|---|
2 Teams | -120 | -130 | -140 |
3 Teams | +160 | +150 | +130 |
4 Teams | +260 | +230 | +200 |
5 Teams | +400 | +350 | +320 |
6 Teams | +600 | +500 | +450 |
Average
Pushes on teasers are handled a bit differently than they are with traditional point spread or totals bets. While a push on a straight bet will result in the bet being declared “no action,” on a teaser, a push will reduce the number of games in your teaser by one. Your bet will then consist of the remaining games and you will be paid out accordingly.
If you bet a four-team, 6-point teaser at odds of +260 and you have one leg of the teaser that pushes, the three remaining selections will become a 3-team teaser and pay off at odds of +160. A two-team teaser will become a one-game teaser and pay off at odds of roughly -265.
Some sportsbooks consider pushes as a loss, so be sure to become familiar with the rules of each sportsbook before placing a wager.
Sportsbooks don’t have the same payout odds on teasers, so it’s to the bettor’s advantage to check the different sportsbooks before placing a wager. While BetMGM doesn’t offer as good of odds as Caesar’s for two-team teasers, BetMGM offers a higher payout on seven-team teasers. Getting the best odds on each bet you place is key to coming out ahead.
Just as it’s important to get the best odds on each wager, getting the best lines on each wager will also help a bettor come out ahead in the long run. With sportsbooks posting different lines on games, finding the best line to tease is simply a matter of checking the different lines at the sportsbooks. With teasers, the difference is often found in the odds you lay. If Caesar’s has the Rams -3.5 and DraftKings has the Rams -4 and you like the underdog, a 6-point teaser will get the underdog to +10 at DraftKings, while a bettor will need to place a 6.5-point teaser at Caesar’s.
Sportsbooks will try to entice you to opening accounts with them by providing first bet offers, matching deposits, and more. There’s no reason not to take advantage of as many of them as you possibly can. The sportsbooks are basically giving away free money, so be sure to get your share.
Many bettors have their favorite teaser methods, although the majority of them don't work out quite as well as expected on closer examination. Teasing favorites of 6 or more points and lowering the spread is a popular method and in 2019 and 2020 the method worked pretty well, but struggled in 2021.
Taking underdogs in games with low totals is another popular method, using the thought that points are expected to be tough to come by, so by teasing the underdog you're getting even more points, but the past results also show that to be a losing proposition. Choosing favorites with high totals also is a losing proposition.
The best advice for teaser bettors is to look at each game separately and use your handicapping to determine if a particular side or total is worth playing in a teaser. Blindly using preset factors is usually going to show a long-term loss, although there is one notable exception – the Wong Teasers.
Sanford Wong is the pen name of John Ferguson, who was best-known for his books on betting blackjack. In 2001, he released the book “Sharp Sports Betting,” which outlined a teaser method that is still used by a number of sports bettors today.
Wong’s research showed that lines teased through the two key numbers of 3 and 7 won an extremely high rate, enough to show a long term profit. For favorites, that involves teasing favorites of 7.5 to 8.5 points and moving the line down to -1.5 to -2.5. For underdogs, it involves taking underdogs of 1.5 to 2.5 points and teasing them up to +7.5 to +8.5.
A two-team, 6-point teaser at -120 requires you to have roughly 73% of your teased games come through, which can be difficult as you're getting just 6 points to play with the line. Wong Teasers have historically won at a higher percentage, making them good wagers.
Pleasers are similar to teasers in that two or more teams/totals have to be selected and you must win all of them in order for your bet to be declared a winner. You also get to move the line, but instead of moving the line in your favor, with a pleaser you move the line against you in return for a much bigger payout. Instead of laying -120 for a two-team, 6-point teaser, the bettor will receive odds around +600 for hitting a two-team, 6-point pleaser.
If the Ravens are -7 against the New York Jets and you take Baltimore in a 6-point teaser, your new line for that portion of your teaser would be Ravens -1. But with a pleaser, you move the line against you, so your new line for that game is Baltimore -13.
While it’s getting tougher to find online sportsbooks that accept pleasers, you can essentially create your own pleaser at Bet365 or PointsBet by creating a parlay using alternate lines.
Nearly every state that allows sports betting will have sportsbooks that allow teasers of some type, ranging from traditional teasers to teaser cards to parlaying alternate spreads. Be sure to check the legal status of sports betting on your state to verify whether you can legally make NFL teaser picks.
Along with the NFL teaser picks on this page, we offer many other types of NFL picks here at ATS.io. Be sure to click the links below to get the latest NFL picks from our team from kickoff on Thursday night to the end of Monday night's action.
Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.
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