Colorado Avalanche vs Tampa Bay Lightning Prediction & Preview - 1/6/2026
Updated July 9, 2026
The Colorado Avalanche will visit the Tampa Bay Lightning on Tuesday night, with both teams aiming to build momentum in the second half of the NHL season. Colorado has been the model of consistency with the league’s best record, but they arrive in Florida on the heels of a rare loss. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay enters on a winning streak and with the confidence that comes with playing on home ice. Here, I break down this matchup in the NHL and make my Avalanche vs Lightning prediction.
Pick: | Avalanche Moneyline |
Confidence: | 4/5 |
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The Avalanche have been dominant all season. They’ve got just three regulation losses this season, but one of them did come in a 2-1 defeat to the Florida Panthers in their most recent outing. Colorado’s attack remains potent, but they are tasked with bouncing back from a rare defeat here. Tampa Bay has gained traction recently with a string of seven straight victories, including a 7-3 win over the San Jose Sharks in their last game.
Colorado’s goaltending has been a significant asset throughout the year, with its starter posting elite numbers in goals-against average and save percentage. Scott Wedgewood has been solid between the pipes and can keep the Avalanche competitive in tight games. Tampa Bay counters with Andrei Vasilevskiy, who has a respectable GAA and save rate but has been tested frequently in recent outings. The Avs may have the edge, but we should see both teams look solid in goal throughout this one.
Nathan MacKinnon has been a driving force for the Avalanche and was recognized league-wide for his performance that has helped Colorado get to the top of the league standings. His ability to generate offense and score in key moments makes him a linchpin for most of what Colorado does. For Tampa Bay, Brayden Point and Nikita Kucherov provide consistent production and could be the spark that keeps the Lightning competitive in what should be a competitive game.
Player | Prop |
|---|---|
Nathan MacKinnon | Over 1.5 Points |
Nikita Kucherov | Over 0.5 Points |
Brayden Point | Over 0.5 Points |
Score Projection: Colorado Avalanche 4 – Tampa Bay Lightning 3
Win Probability: Colorado Avalanche 55%, Tampa Bay Lightning 45%
My expectation is for the Avalanche to bounce back from their loss to the Panthers with a win here in Tampa. The lack of offense from the Avs on Sunday was confirmation that they are indeed human, but I don't expect Colorado to struggle that badly to score for a second game in a row.
Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.
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