Detroit Red Wings vs Toronto Maple Leafs Prediction & Picks - 1/21/2026
Updated July 9, 2026
Wednesday’s game between the Detroit Red Wings and the Toronto Maple Leafs at Scotiabank Arena should be an interesting one for a number of reasons. The Red Wings are trying to improve their playoff positioning in the Atlantic Division, while the Leafs are trying to climb into a playoff spot over the next couple of months themselves. Detroit is also trying to complete a regular-season sweep of the Leafs with a win here. Before the puck drops in Toronto, continue reading to find my Red Wings vs Maple Leafs prediction.
Pick: | Under 6.5 ATS PRO |
Confidence: | 3/5 |
Detroit has won four of their last five games coming into this matchup. In each of their four wins over that stretch, the Wings have scored four goals, and they will attempt to light up the scoreboard again here. Toronto’s recent form includes three losses in their last four games, including a loss to the Minnesota Wild in their last game. Head‑to‑head history further tilts slightly toward Detroit with multiple wins over Toronto recently, but Toronto remains dangerous at home.
Detroit’s John Gibson is expected to start and brings experience and the ability to keep games close, while Toronto’s Joseph Woll is likely in net for the Leafs. The Leafs have allowed six goals in three of their last four games, losing each of those three games in which they failed to contain their opponents. They will need better goaltending and defense in general if they are going to get back into the win column on Wednesday.
Detroit’s scoring is led by Lucas Raymond, Alex DeBrincat, and Dylan Larkin. DeBrincat leads the Wings with 26 goals going into this matchup. Toronto counters with Auston Matthews, who remains their most potent goal threat, supported by William Nylander. Nylander has a team-high 31 assists and will try to set up his teammates in dangerous positions throughout this contest. Special teams could be decisive as Detroit’s power play ranks among the better units league‑wide, while Toronto has struggled to convert consistently.
Score Projection: Detroit 2 – Toronto 3 ATS PRO
Win Probability: Detroit 45%, Toronto 55% ATS PRO
I am going to take the under in this matchup as my top pick in the betting markets. The Leafs have struggled on defense of late, but they should turn things around here against a Wings team that they are desperate to get a win against. Expect this game to come down to the wire and for the under to cash when all is said and done.
Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.
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