Montreal Canadiens vs Ottawa Senators Pick & Prediction - 1/17/2026
Updated July 9, 2026
Saturday’s NHL matchup between the Montreal Canadiens and the Ottawa Senators features two Canadian sides in different places in the Atlantic Division. Montreal enters this contest in third place in the Atlantic, while Ottawa is in last place. Here, I take a closer look at this rivalry game in Ontario and you will be able to find my Canadiens vs Senators prediction right here.
Pick: | Senators ML ATS PRO |
Confidence: | 3/5 |
Montreal enters this game having lost three of its last four games. The Habs will need to step things up defensively to beat the Senators and get back into the win column here, after each of the first two meetings between these teams this season have seen a total of seven goals scored.
Ottawa arrives fresh off an 8-4 win over the Rangers, displaying explosive offense and getting multi-point efforts from stars like Brady Tkachuk and Dylan Cozens. Despite that offensive outburst, Ottawa’s defensive performance over recent games has been inconsistent, and they will try to fix that in this matchup against Montreal.
Montreal’s netminders have struggled this year, with Sam Montembeault and Jakub Dobes both having GAAs over 3.00 for the season. Ottawa’s goaltending has been under pressure, prompting the recent signing of veteran James Reimer in hopes of stabilizing things in their crease. Until Ullmark returns to full duties, the Senators may go with Leevi Merilainen tonight.
Montreal’s attack is spearheaded by influential playmakers and finishers. Nick Suzuki leads the Canadiens in scoring with consistent production, supported by Cole Caufield’s goal scoring and Lane Hutson’s playmaking from the back end. For Ottawa, Tim Stutzle is the engine that drives the offense, combining goal scoring with assists, while Brady Tkachuk’s physical presence and scoring touch elevate Ottawa’s chances in tight contests.
Score Projection: Montreal 4 – Ottawa 5 ATS PRO
Win Probability: Montreal 45%, Ottawa 55% ATS PRO
There are two bets worth making on this game as far as I'm concerned. The over is worth a look, as both of these teams have seen a large percentage of their games go over their respective totals. But my top play for this contest in the betting markets would be to take the Senators to win at home on the moneyline for their third win in a row.
Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.
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