St. Louis Blues vs Tampa Bay Lightning Prediction & Prop Bets - 12/22/2025
Updated July 9, 2026
The St. Louis Blues will travel to Florida on Monday night to face the Tampa Bay Lightning in a matchup that will send both teams into the holiday break. After a big 6-2 victory over the Florida Panthers on Saturday, the Blues will look to carry that momentum into Benchmark International Arena in Tampa. Tampa Bay is also coming off a win where they scored six goals and will try to build on that themselves. Before the opening face-off in Tampa, you will find my Blues vs Lightning prediction right here.
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The Blues enter this game off a statement win over Florida in which St. Louis scored early and often, with contributions across the lineup and strong work from goalie Joel Hofer. Prior to that, St. Louis had scored two goals in the previous two games against the Rangers and Jets. They have a 14-15-8 record overall this season and the question for St. Louis will be which version of their attack shows up in this game.
Tampa Bay’s recent results have also featured their share of ups and downs. The Bolts put up six goals in a home win over Carolina on December 20, but they had lost three games in a row before that. Inconsistency on offense has been a common theme for both of these teams and something that they will have to overcome here.
For the Blues, Joel Hofer’s recent performances have been noteworthy, including a shutout against the Jets. He has better numbers this season than starting netminder Jordan Binnington, making the goaltending situation very interesting for the Blues.
Tampa Bay’s Andrei Vasilevskiy was recently activated from injured reserve and remains one of the league’s top netminders when healthy. His presence alone gives the Lightning a higher floor, though Jonas Johansson has been reliable when called upon as well.
Robert Thomas continues to be the offensive engine for St. Louis, leading the Blues in goals and assists. Jake Neighbours leads the Blues with 10 goals this season despite missing some time due to injury. For Tampa Bay, Nikita Kucherov remains a premier playmaker, leading his club in points with 43. Brandon Hagel and Jake Guentzel are also players that the Blues' defense will have to watch out for.
Player | Prop |
|---|---|
Nikita Kucherov (TB) | Over 1.5 Points |
Robert Thomas (STL) | Over 0.5 Assists |
Jake Guentzel (TB) | Over 0.5 Goals |
Score Projection: St. Louis Blues 2 – Tampa Bay Lightning 4
Win Probability: St. Louis 28%, Tampa Bay 72%
Both of these teams have been wildly inconsistent of late. But I'm going to lay the puckline with the Lightning at home here. Tampa's numbers are much better both offensively and defensively, while the Lightning penalty kill should give them the edge on special teams. The Bolts should win this game by two goals or more.
Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.
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