Tampa Bay Lightning vs Chicago Blackhawks Pick & Prediction - 1/23/2026
Updated July 9, 2026
The Tampa Bay Lightning visit the Chicago Blackhawks on Friday night in a game between two teams in very different positions in their respective divisions. Tampa Bay sits atop the Atlantic Division, while the Blackhawks are near the bottom of the Central Division. With both clubs looking to fine-tune their play ahead of the Olympic break, this game is important for the aspirations of both sides. Here, I take a closer look at this matchup and bring you my Lightning vs Blackhawks prediction.
Pick: | Lightning -1.5 ATS PRO |
Confidence: | 3/5 |
Tampa Bay enters this game with an impressive run of results, having pushed their point streak to 14 games with a 4-1 win over the San Jose Sharks. Brandon Hagel scored twice and assisted in that win, and Nikita Kucherov continued his run of point production. The Lightning’s array of offensive threats has helped them secure wins even with occasional defensive lapses and they will try to stay atop the Atlantic Division with another win here.
Chicago has been more up and down. They sit near the bottom of the Central Division going into this game and they could be at the bottom of the division by the end of Friday night. Making things tougher on Chicago is the fact that they are playing on the second leg of a back-to-back here after facing the Carolina Hurricanes on Thursday.
Tampa Bay’s Andrei Vasilevskiy remains one of the NHL’s elite netminders, giving the Lightning stability in net and making timely saves to protect leads. His experience and consistency give Tampa Bay a clear edge between the pipes. Chicago’s goaltending situation has not been decided upon for this game, as they are on the second leg of a back-to-back and will likely play a different goaltender than the one used on Thursday.
The Lightning has a high-powered offense with multiple scoring threats. Brandon Hagel leads Tampa Bay in goals, while Nikita Kucherov’s playmaking ability fuels the attack. Kucherov has over 70 points this season and is closing in on 50 assists. Chicago is led by Connor Bedard and Tyler Bertuzzi, who lead the Blackhawks in scoring and provide the offense Chicago needs to be competitive. The question will be whether that duo can deliver on a second straight night.
Score Projection: Tampa Bay Lightning 4 – Chicago Blackhawks 2 ATS PRO
Win Probability: Lightning 68%, Blackhawks 32% ATS PRO
Tampa Bay should win this game and cover the puckline despite being on the road on Friday night. The Blackhawks are on the second game of a back-to-back here and they enter this contest with a 11-12-4 record at home on the year. A fresher Tampa team should win convincingly here.
Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.
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