Vegas Golden Knights vs Toronto Maple Leafs Prediction - 1/23/2026
Updated July 9, 2026
The Vegas Golden Knights head to Scotiabank Arena to face the Toronto Maple Leafs on Friday night. These two clubs met earlier this month in a thrilling overtime game that ended in a 6-5 victory for Vegas. Toronto gets a chance to even the season series on their home rink in this contest. Before the puck drops in Canada on Friday night, I've got everything you need below to make an informed Golden Knights vs Maple Leafs prediction.
Pick: Toronto Maple Leafs Moneyline
Confidence: ★★★★☆
When these teams met on January 15, the Golden Knights rallied from a multi-goal deficit to win 6-5 in overtime, with Jack Eichel scoring the winner and Mitch Marner recording two assists against his former club. Vegas is playing well lately, but this is the second game of a back-to-back for the Golden Knights after their game in Boston on Thursday.
Toronto has earned at least a point in three of its last four games. But they have lost three of those last four games, dropping a couple of overtime games on opposite ends of a split in a pair of regulation contests. The Leafs have a rest advantage going into this game and they will try to take advantage of that to get a win here.
Toronto’s Joseph Woll has been solid with a save percentage north of .910 this season, and Dennis Hildeby is a capable backup. Vegas' goaltending situation is going to be more fluid going into this game, as they have some choices to make on the second leg of a back-to-back. How Vegas approaches this contest from a goaltending standpoint could make all the difference in this matchup.
Offensively, Vegas relies heavily on Jack Eichel, who tallied multiple points in the last meeting and remains a threat on the power play. Mitch Marner is also going to be a key figure in this game as he faces a Toronto team that he spent so much time with previously. Toronto’s Auston Matthews continues to lead his club in scoring, and Morgan Rielly has chipped in with transitions from the defensive zone. William Nylander is out on IR, greatly impacting what the Leafs are capable of offensively.
Score Projection: Toronto 4 – Vegas 3
Win Probability: Toronto 52%, Vegas 48%
We should see another high-scoring game between these two teams. I think that the Leafs will avenge their loss to the Knights earlier in the month. Expect the rest advantage for the Maple Leafs to make the difference here and for Toronto to defeat the road-weary Golden Knights.
Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.
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