AC Milan vs Napoli Prediction - September 28, 2025
Updated July 9, 2026
AC Milan and Napoli will meet in the biggest game of the week in Serie A on Sunday at the Stadio Giuseppe Meazza. Napoli arrive with a perfect record to start the Serie A campaign, while Milan sit in third place in the table. The winner of this match will make a statement of intent in the Serie A title race looking ahead to the rest of the season. Before kickoff from Milan, continue reading to get my AC Milan vs Napoli prediction.
This encounter features a pair of clubs in the top-three in the Serie A table. Napoli currently top the standings, having won all four of their matches and collecting 12 points. Their 3-2 home win over Pisa was not easy, but Napoli held their nerve to get the win. Milan sits in third place with nine points from four matches after a 3-0 away victory against Udinese in their last match. Milan’s goal difference sits at +5 while Napoli’s is +6 and this is clearly a match between two of the best sides in Italy right now.
Napoli’s setup under Antonio Conte has clearly delivered results early. Their defense has conceded just three goals in four matches. New signings like Lorenzo Lucca and Kevin De Bruyne have made an impact in this campaign on the attack.
Milan has looked good early on under Massimiliano Allegri. Christian Pulisic was instrumental in their recent 3-0 win over Udinese, scoring twice and recording an assist. The Rossoneri look sharper, more cohesive, and determined to prove they belong in the title conversation. Their defense has been even better than that of Napoli, conceding just two goals in four matches thus far.
While Napoli come in unbeaten and confident, I believe Milan has the tactical edge and should be able to take advantage of being at home in this key early fixture. Milan will press with its midfield and exploit any lapses in Napoli’s defense. Napoli will be dangerous on the attack, but I think that we will see Milan be more clinical when they go forward.
My prediction for this match is a Milan victory. It should be a low-scoring match and one that never feels secure for either side. But when the final whistle blows, I expect it to be the home side that celebrates and draws level with Napoli on 12 points.
Score Projection: AC Milan 1 – Napoli 0
Win Probability: AC Milan 45%, Napoli 35%, Draw 20%
Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.
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