Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid Prediction - September 27, 2025
Updated July 9, 2026
Atlético Madrid and Real Madrid will face off in a high-stakes Madrid Derby on Saturday. Real has dominated the competition in La Liga early in the season, while Atleti has struggled out of the gate. But a win in this match could change the trajectory of the campaign for either team in this huge matchup in Spain. Before kickoff, continue reading to get my Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid prediction.
The Madrid Derby will take place on Saturday at the Riyadh Air Metropolitano. Atlético head into the game with plenty of pressure on them. They most recently got a dramatic 3–2 win over Rayo Vallecano, fueled by a hat-trick from Julián Álvarez. But they have just nine points through six matches and are in eighth place in La Liga. Real Madrid has enjoyed six wins in six matches in La Liga and they enter this match week at the top of the table by two points over rivals Barcelona.
Injuries are a factor on both sides going into Derby Day. Atlético are missing José Giménez, Thiago Almada, and Johnny Cardoso. Real are without Trent Alexander-Arnold, Ferland Mendy, and Antonio Rüdiger. The defensive void for both teams may leave room for attacking players to exploit gaps. Real are likely to field a backline with Militao, Huijsen, and Carreras, supported by fullbacks and a midfield containing Bellingham, Tchouameni, and Valverde or Güler. Atlético may attempt a slightly more conservative setup with Llorente supporting Álvarez and Griezmann up front.
The head-to-head history between these teams has been evenly matched recently. Real advanced past Atleti in the Champions League over two legs last season, advancing 3-2 on aggregate. But Real is winless in four La Liga games against Atleti over the last two seasons and they will try to end their winless streak against their rivals in La Liga play here.
I lean toward a Real Madrid win in this edition of the Madrid Derby. While Julian Alvarez has been dangerous throughout this campaign and Atleti will have the home crowd backing them in a big spot, they have lacked quality against good teams early in the year. Real Madrid are just a cut above their crosstown rivals coming into this match and I think that Real will remain at the top of the table with another impressive performance here.
Score Projection: Atlético Madrid 1 – Real Madrid 2
Win Probability: Atlético Madrid 32%, Draw 27%, Real Madrid 41%
Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.
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