The Big Ten spotlight shines on Evanston on Wednesday night as the Illinois Fighting Illini make the short trip to face the Northwestern Wildcats. Illinois enters this contest having compiled a 13-3 overall record and a 4-1 mark in conference play, including a road victory over a ranked Iowa team last time out. Northwestern sits at 8-8 overall and 0-5 in league action and is desperate to snap its conference losing streak. Before this game begins in the Big Ten, you can find my Illinois vs Northwestern prediction right here.
Pick: | Northwestern +8.5 ATS PRO |
Confidence: | 3/5 |
Illinois has brought consistency on the road with a string of strong performances, including a 75-69 win over Iowa, where the Illini jumped out early and held off a second-half rally from the Hawkeyes. That effort improved Illinois’ record to 13-3 overall and 4-1 in Big Ten play, and underscores how effective the Illini can be when their offense and defense are clicking.
Illinois has one of the nation’s better scoring margins, averaging 86 points per game while limiting opponents to around 67 points per contest. The Illini also excel on the glass, out-rebounding foes by significant margins and generating extra possessions. Their efficient offensive attack is paced by Keaton Wagler and other contributors in a balanced lineup that thrives in creating on half-court sets.
Northwestern comes into this contest struggling to find its footing in league games, dropping its first five Big Ten matchups. The Wildcats’ most recent outing saw them take a tough overtime loss at Rutgers, where Nick Martinelli poured in a career-high 34 points, but it wasn’t enough to secure the win. Northwestern’s offense can be potent when Martinelli is on, but the supporting cast has been inconsistent and their rebounding remains a concern. Northwestern must improve on creating second-chance opportunities and limiting turnovers if it hopes to contain Illinois’ dynamic offense here.
Score Projection: Illinois 84 – Northwestern 79 ATS PRO
Win Probability: Illinois 78%, Northwestern 22% ATS PRO
Illinois should be able to come away with the win in this contest from Evanston. But I'm going to take the points with the Northwestern Wildcats on Wednesday night. We are going to see a desperate Northwestern team here and they should be able to remain competitive at home in a rivalry matchup. Expect this game to come down to the final couple of minutes.
Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.
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