The countdown is on for the New Year’s Eve showdown between the UConn Huskies and Xavier Musketeers on Wednesday at Cintas Center in Cincinnati. UConn enters this Big East contest with a 12-1 record, riding an eight-game winning streak that includes a 72-54 win over DePaul in its last outing. Xavier comes in at 9-4 overall, having a surprising level of success under first-year head coach Richard Pitino. Here, I break down this Big East contest and give you my UConn vs Xavier prediction on the court.
Pick: | Xavier +11.5 |
Confidence: | 3/5 |
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Connecticut leads the Big East with an imposing 12-1 record and is aiming for a 3-0 start in league play for the third time since rejoining the Big East. Senior guard Solo Ball leads the Huskies with 15.4 points per game, while Alex Karaban and Tarris Reed Jr. provide scoring of their own. UConn’s defense is among the best five in the country by advanced metrics, holding opponents to 61.1 points per game and ranking well in field-goal percentage defense and blocks. UConn also returns from a short break and appears near full strength with no major injuries reported heading into this contest.
The Xavier Musketeers have carved out a respectable 9-4 record, including a 7-2 home record. Tre Carroll paces the Xavier offense at 16.5 points per game, complemented by contributions from Roddie Anderson III and Jovan Milicevic. Xavier’s offense is middle-of-the-pack nationally, but the team’s perimeter scoring ability could stretch the Huskies’ defense. Xavier is off to a 1-1 start in Big East play, losing to Creighton and beating Georgetown.
Score Projection: UConn 80 – Xavier 72
Win Probability: UConn 88%, Xavier 12%
This could be one of the best games of the day in college basketball and I think that Xavier has what it takes to keep things reasonably close against UConn. I'll take the Musketeers to cover the spread on their home floor here, as Richard Pitino has done a great job in his first year in Cincinnati, which I expect to continue in this matchup against one of the powerhouse programs in college basketball.
Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.
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