Arkansas State vs South Alabama Pick & Prediction - 10/14/2025
Updated July 9, 2026
The South Alabama Jaguars (1-5) will host the Arkansas State Red Wolves (2-4) on Tuesday night. Both of these Sun Belt Conference programs are struggling to find consistency this season and this game is a chance for either team to regain a bit of momentum in conference play. South Alabama is favored at home as they look for their first conference win. Here, you can continue reading to get my Arkansas State vs South Alabama prediction.
Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|
South Alabama −7.5 | S. Alabama −290 / Arkansas State +240 | 59.5 |
South Alabama comes in as the home favorite despite an 0-2 start in Sun Belt play. The Jaguars have lost five games in a row and they have yet to beat an FBS opponent for the year. They have given up over 30 points in all five games they have played against FBS opponents and they will try to put a stop to that trend in this game.
The question will be whether or not Arkansas State can take advantage of South Alabama's defensive issues. The Jaguars are averaging just 23.3 points per game (11th in the Sun Belt) and are near the bottom of the country in rushing output at around 119 yards per game. The Red Wolves have had to rely on putting the ball in the air and they will hope for a little more balance in this game against the Jaguars.
Arkansas State’s passing game has to carry much of the load given their weak rushing numbers. Jaylen Raynor has thrown for 1,451 yards with eight touchdowns and four interceptions. South Alabama is led by Bishop Davenport, who has 1,063 passing yards with nine touchdowns and four interceptions. He will try to make up for the shortcomings of his team's defense by putting up big numbers here.
Score Projection: South Alabama 31 – Arkansas State 27
Win Probability: South Alabama 64%, Arkansas State 36%
I do expect South Alabama to get a win at home to break into the win column in Sun Belt Conference play. But I am going to take the points with Arkansas State in this matchup. The Red Wolves are more than capable of moving the ball through the air to keep a game respectable. They will do that here against a suspect South Alabama defense.
Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.
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