Army vs Air Force Pick & Prediction - 11/1/2025
Updated July 9, 2026
The annual showdown between the Army Black Knights and the Air Force Falcons will take place this Saturday. The Black Knights (3‑4) will travel to face the Falcons (2‑5) in Colorado Springs in a matchup that carries Commander‑in‑Chief’s Trophy implications. Both teams are under .500 for the season but this game is one of the two most important games on their schedule every year. Continue reading for my Army vs Air Force prediction.
Air Force leads the all‑time series against Army and enjoys home‑field advantage in Colorado Springs. But Army has won six of the last eight meetings in this series and won their last two trips to Falcon Stadium. Army enters this game as a small underdog despite their recent success against Air Force and the Black Knights will try to prove the oddsmakers wrong with a win on the road.
Both teams rely heavily on the ground game. Army averages 275.6 rushing yards per game and averages over 60 rushes per contest. Their passing yardage is minimal, but that is by choice. Air Force averages 283.7 rushing yards per game and has a dual‑threat quarterback in Liam Szarka. He has 725 yards rushing and nine rushing touchdowns this year while also passing for over 1,000 yards. The ground game for both teams should make for a slow-paced contest where big plays are less common than in most college football games.
Army QB Cale Hellums remains central to the triple‑option attack of the Black Knights. He has 10 rushing touchdowns this season and has been effective in finishing drives. That running success is what drives Army’s offense. Their passing game is limited, but they often don't need it to win games.
Air Force quarterback Liam Szarka presents more balance at the position. He is a legitimate threat on the ground and has shown passing capability. He forces defenses to account for read‑option opportunities and for the pass.
Score Projection: Army 24 – Air Force 21
Win Probability: Army 55%, Air Force 45%
This game is going to come down to which team will win the line of scrimmage the most consistently. I lean toward Army being that team, as they have been keeping games close against very good AAC teams like Tulane and North Texas. Look for the Black Knights to shut down the running game of Air Force and to get a win to move to 4-4 on the season.
Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.
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