Boise State vs Nevada Pick & Prediction - 10/24/2025
Updated July 9, 2026
The Boise State Broncos and Nevada Wolf Pack will meet in Mountain West Conference action in college football on Friday night. The Wolf Pack comes into this game as huge underdogs at home against a Boise State team looking to stay undefeated in conference play this season. Here, I take a closer look at this matchup on Friday night and give you my Boise State vs Nevada prediction for the night.
Boise State’s momentum. The Broncos are clicking on offense and have shown the ability to break games open. Against UNLV last week, they racked up 558 yards of offense and won by a score of 56-31. They will carry confidence into this contest as they try to stay perfect in Mountain West play for the year.
Nevada’s struggles. Nevada is 1-6 on the season and they are 0-6 against FBS opponents for the season. The Wolf Pack’s recent 24-22 loss to New Mexico featured solid passing from Carter Jones. Jones went 23/29 for 202 yards. But Nevada struggled running the ball and stopping the run and they extended their conference losing streak to 14 games in the process. Nevada will not be expected to put an end to that losing streak here.
Turnovers and Big-Plays. Boise State’s ability to generate turnovers and special-teams plays gives them an edge. We saw that last week when they scored in a pick-six against UNLV. Nevada will have to avoid turning the ball over if they want to get a shocking win here.
Boise State's Maddux Madsen has been efficient and consistent. He produced 253 yards and four touchdowns in the win over UNLV. Madsen has 15 touchdown passes to just six interceptions so far this season. Nevada's Carter Jones has shown promise in his limited starts. He completed over 79% of his passes against New Mexico, but he has three touchdown passes and three interceptions on the year and needs to improve on that ratio.
Score Projection: Boise State 38 – Nevada 13
Win Probability: Boise State 91%, Nevada 9%
Boise State should have no problem winning big against Nevada on the road this week. The Wolf Pack are at a huge disadvantage when it comes to the quality of their passing attack and the Broncos should be able to build a nice margin of victory thanks to that discrepancy. I'll lay the points with the Broncos here, as they should remain perfect in the Mountain West for another week.
Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.
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