California Golden Bears vs Hawaii Rainbow Warriors Hawaii Bowl Prediction - 12/24/2025
Updated July 9, 2026
The California Golden Bears and Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors will do battle in the Sheraton Hawaii Bowl on Tuesday night. Cal is aiming to finish its season strong in spite of a coaching change and Hawaii is hoping to take advantage of what is a true home game for them on Christmas Eve. Before kickoff from the Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex, you will find my Cal vs Hawaii prediction right here.
Pick: | Hawaii -1.5 |
Confidence: | 4/5 |
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This is an interesting spot for Cal, as they enter the Hawaii Bowl after firing head coach Justin Wilcox after the regular season. The Golden Bears have turned to former Washington State head coach Nick Rolovich in an interim capacity. Rolovich will not only try to win this game to satisfy his competitive nature, but this could also serve as an audition for him for a larger role at Cal or elsewhere.
On the other side, Hawaii has not reached a bowl game since 2020. And not only are they in a bowl game for the first time since then, but they are also playing a true home game at their usual home stadium. It will be interesting to see what the level of support is like in the crowd with that in mind, as the Golden Bears will have to overcome their opponent and the crowd.
This Hawaii Bowl matchup features a couple of interesting personal stories as well. Cal interim coach Nick Rolovich and Hawaii head coach Timmy Chang were college teammates and will face each other in this contest. Additionally, Cal QB Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele returns home to compete in front of a supportive local crowd in Hawaii.
Both starting quarterbacks are left-handed and have put up solid numbers this season. Cal’s Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele has thrown for over 3,100 yards with 20 total touchdowns. On the other side, Micah Alejado has completed nearly 66% of his passes for 2,832 yards and 21 passing touchdowns to fuel the Hawaii offense. The duel between these two young signal-callers will likely dictate the outcome of this contest.
Score Projection: Cal 21 – Hawaii 27
Win Probability: Cal 45%, Hawaii 55%
This is going to be an entertaining game between the Golden Bears and Rainbow Warriors, thanks to the dangerous quarterbacks on both sides of the game. But I think that Hawaii has the inside track to winning this contest, as home-field advantage should push them over the edge in a game that will be decided late.
Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.
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