Dallas Cowboys vs Washington Commanders Prediction & ATS Pick - 12/25/2025
Updated July 9, 2026
The Dallas Cowboys and Washington Commanders will square off on Thursday afternoon, with neither team in playoff contention entering Week 17. With the Cowboys at 6-8-1 and the Commanders at 4-11, this NFC East matchup is for pride more than anything on Christmas Day. Dallas enters the contest as the favorite based on the injury reports for both teams. Before these teams kick off the NFL Christmas slate, you can find my Cowboys vs Commanders prediction below.
Pick: | Over 50.5 |
Confidence: | 4/5 |
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Both of these teams are struggling mightily going into this Christmas matchup. The Cowboys have dropped three games in a row to get eliminated from playoff contention. They have given up over 30 points in all three of those games. This game is a chance for the Cowboys' defense to get back on track against a struggling Commanders offense. But nothing is guaranteed for the Cowboys on defense right now.
Washington has dropped four of its last five games coming into this contest. Washington has struggled to generate offense without starting quarterback Jayden Daniels. Marcus Mariota has seen a ton of action in the place of Daniels this season and that has dropped Washington from being one of the best teams in the NFC to one of the worst all in one year.
Of course, the big question going into this game is how much both teams will care about the result. Both of these teams would be best served to lose games late in the season, but the players have a vested interest in playing well to help their own careers.
Dak Prescott leads the Cowboys at quarterback. He has had a strong statistical season, including nearly 4,200 passing yards and 28 touchdown passes. His ability to attack the Commanders’ secondary will be a key determinant in this game. On the other sideline, Washington’s quarterback situation is unsettled. With Mariota questionable and uncertainty on who will lead the offense, a lack of rhythm under center could hamper the Commanders’ scoring production even more.
Score Projection: Cowboys 31 – Commanders 24
Win Probability: Cowboys 72%, Commanders 28%
My best bet for this contest is for the Cowboys and Commanders to go over the total of 50.5 points. The Commanders are struggling on offense without Daniels on the field, but even Washington should be able to do some scoring against the dreadful Dallas defense. I'll take the over here and cheer for some offensive fireworks in this NFC East rivalry game to start a full day of NFL action on Thursday.
Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.
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