The Colorado Buffaloes (2–3) will face the TCU Horned Frogs (3–1) on Saturday night in Fort Worth. This matchup features two teams that have yet to get a win in Big 12 play so far this season. One of them has to come out of this contest with their first conference win of the year. Before kickoff from the Metroplex, continue reading to get my Colorado vs TCU prediction.
Our Colorado vs TCU Pick
- Our pick: TCU -14
- Confidence: 4/5
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Colorado Buffaloes vs TCU Horned Frogs
- Date & Time: Saturday, October 4, 2025, 7:30 PM ET
- Venue: Amon G. Carter Stadium, Fort Worth, TX
- Broadcast: FOX
Colorado vs TCU Odds
Market | Odds |
|---|
Spread | TCU -14 |
Moneyline | TCU -600 / Colorado +430 |
Total | Over/Under 53.5 |
Key Storylines
- Rough Start For Colorado: Deion Sanders' first year without Shedeur Sanders and Travis Hunter has not gone well. Colorado is 2-3 on the season and 0-2 in Big 12 play. Colorado lost their last game to BYU at home and will try to turn their season around with an upset on the road this week.
- Colorado's Injuries: The Buffaloes are dealing with significant injuries and suspensions, particularly in their defensive secondary and offensive line. Key players like RJ Johnson, Terrance Love, and Sam Okunlola are sidelined, which could impact their ability to contain TCU's high-powered offense.
- TCU's Offensive Firepower: TCU's offense has been explosive, averaging 37.3 points per game. Quarterback Josh Hoover has thrown for 1,242 yards and 11 touchdowns this season. Wide receiver Eric McAlister has been a standout, earning national honors after his 254-yard, three-touchdown performance against SMU.
- Colorado's Offensive Adjustments: With injuries to key running backs DeKalon Taylor and Simeon Price, Colorado will rely on Micah Welch and Dallan Hayden to carry the load on the ground. How effectively they can step up will be crucial in keeping pace with TCU's offense.
Quarterback Play
- Colorado: Kaidon Salter has 684 passing yards and five touchdowns with one interception. He has struggled and has been replaced for portions of the Buffaloes' season already. Salter is one of the big reasons that Colorado has been seen as such a disappointment early on.
- TCU: Josh Hoover has been impressive, leading the offense with 1,242 passing yards and 11 touchdowns with four interceptions. The Horned Frogs' passing offense has looked fine even with wide receiver Jack Bech departing for the NFL after last season and Hoover deserves a ton of credit for that.
Betting Trends & H2H
- Colorado: The Buffaloes are 2-2-1 against the spread this season. They have gone under the total in three of their first five games this year.
- TCU: The Horned Frogs are 2-1-1 ATS this season. They are 2-2 in the over/under market to this point in the year.
- Head-to-Head: These teams are 1-1 against each other all-time. The road team has won each of the two meetings between these programs.
Colorado vs TCU Model Projection
Score Projection: TCU 41 – Colorado 24
Win Probability: TCU 79%, Colorado 21%
Final Thoughts
With Colorado's defensive struggles and key injuries, TCU's potent offense is poised to exploit their weaknesses. The Horned Frogs' ability to generate big plays through the air gives them a significant advantage. I will lay the points with the Horned Frogs in this matchup, as they should get their first Big 12 win of the season.
Jay Sanin
Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.
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