Georgia vs Mississippi State Pick & Prediction - 11/8/2025
Updated July 9, 2026
Georgia will visit Mississippi State in a huge game in the SEC on Saturday afternoon. Georgia enters this week ranked fifth in the country and in control of its own destiny in the race to make the College Football Playoff. They will try to avoid an upset at the hands of a Mississippi State team that has put a scare into some SEC teams despite their poor record. Here, I break down this SEC matchup and give you my Georgia vs Mississippi State prediction.
Georgia remains one of the country’s elite programs, but this season they’ve had to lean on comebacks and defensive stops late to secure wins. They survived a one-possession game in the cocktail party against Florida in their last game and will try to avoid more drama in this contest.
Georgia's rushing attack features the dynamic freshman Chauncey Bowens and sophomore Nate Frazier, while quarterback Gunner Stockton has tossed 12 touchdowns with only two interceptions. Stockton has also rushed for seven scores.
Mississippi State is led by veteran QB Blake Shapen and a pair of capable receivers in senior Brenen Thompson and junior Anthony Evans III. The Bulldogs finally got their first SEC win of the season last week by beating Arkansas. But three of Mississippi State's four SEC losses have come by one possession and they will look to keep putting elite teams on upset alert here.
Gunner Stockton offers dual-threat ability and has shown poise when Georgia has needed it. He has thrown for 1,776 yards on the season and has added 290 rushing yards with seven rushing touchdowns. His workload continues to increase as Georgia trusts him to lead them in late-game situations.
Mississippi State's Blake Shapen has passed for over 2,100 yards and has 15 touchdown passes. He doesn’t burn teams deep regularly, but his efficiency and decision-making have improved as his career has gone on. Georgia will try to pressure him and force mistakes but Shapen has been effective against teams like Texas and Tennessee already this year.
Score Projection: Georgia 31 – Mississippi State 24
Win Probability: Georgia 68%, Mississippi State 32%
I expect Georgia to win this game and to stay at one loss on the season. But I do not think it is going to be easy by any stretch of the imagination. I'm going to take the points with a Mississippi State team that has covered the spread time and time again this year, even in their losses to SEC opponents.
Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.
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