Indiana vs Penn State Pick & Prediction - 11/8/2025
Updated July 9, 2026
The undefeated Indiana Hoosiers (9-0) will visit the struggling Penn State Nittany Lions (3-5) on Saturday afternoon. Indiana enters this week ranked second in the nation and rolling through Big Ten competition. They will aim to avoid being tripped up by a Penn State team whose season has become an absolute nightmare in recent weeks. Here, I break down this Big Ten battle and give you my Indiana vs Penn State prediction from Happy Valley.
The Hoosiers are 9-0 and they have beaten their last two opponents by a combined score of 111-16. Quarterback Fernando Mendoza has thrown for 2,124 yards with 25 touchdowns and just four interceptions this season. Indiana’s running game has also been dominant and they rank first in the country in scoring at 46.4 points per game. The Hoosiers are also third in the country in scoring defense, allowing just 10.8 points per contest.
Penn State is in a tough spot. The Nittany Lions have dropped five straight games, are 0-5 in Big Ten play, and have lost the coach and quarterback that they started the season with. Their passing game has been limited after the injury to Drew Allar. The home crowd at Beaver Stadium could help them be more competitive, but the program is in transition after the midseason firing of James Franklin and they could get crushed by a hungry Indiana team.
Mendoza has been great this season for Indiana and has worked his way into the Heisman Trophy discussion. Only Julian Sayin of Ohio State has shorter odds to win the Heisman than Mendoza entering this week and there is plenty of time for Mendoza to change that.
Penn State is going with Ethan Grunkemeyer at quarterback since Allar went down for the season. He managed just 145 yards on 28 pass attempts last week against Ohio State. He is expected to struggle against another quality defense this week.
Score Projection: Indiana 44 – Penn State 17
Win Probability: Indiana 85%, Penn State 15%
Things are not going to get any easier for Penn State after they were beaten down by Ohio State last week. Indiana is elite on both sides of the ball. And while the Hoosiers are not quite as good defensively as Ohio State, they are better on offense and Indiana should put a big number on the scoreboard here. I'm going to lay the points with the Hoosiers in what could be a lopsided game in the Big Ten.
Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.
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