Iowa Hawkeyes vs Vanderbilt Commodores ReliaQuest Bowl Prediction - 12/31/2025
Updated July 9, 2026
Wednesday’s ReliaQuest Bowl between the Iowa Hawkeyes and Vanderbilt Commodores will kick off the New Year's Eve bowl schedule in style. Vanderbilt enters this matchup with a 10-2 record and one of the nation’s most dynamic offensive players in quarterback Diego Pavia. Iowa brings a vaunted defense to Tampa with a chance to finish the season with a win and with a top-25 ranking. Before kickoff from Raymond James Stadium, continue reading to get my Iowa vs Vanderbilt prediction on Wednesday afternoon.
Pick: | Under 45.5 |
Confidence: | 4/5 |
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The main storyline going into this bowl game is Vanderbilt’s prolific scoring attack against Iowa’s elite defense. Vanderbilt concluded its regular season with a program-record 10 wins and quarterback Diego Pavia earned his way to being a Heisman finalist this season. While Pavia didn't win the Heisman, he has one last chance to show out as a college quarterback before trying to get to the pros.
Iowa has one of the best defensive units in the country, one that consistently limits explosive plays and forces opponents to sustain long drives to put points on the board. The question for Iowa is always whether or not they can do enough scoring to come away with a win in this contest. The Hawkeyes won their final two regular-season games, including a 40-16 win over Nebraska in their regular-season finale, a performance they will try to build on here.
Diego Pavia has been the engine for Vanderbilt all season, generating yardage with both his arm and legs and serving as the primary weapon for the Commodores all season long. He is expected to play in this game, and he will be tested by an elite defense, much like he was for most of SEC play.
Iowa quarterback Mark Gronowski is not asked to put the ball in the air nearly as much as Pavia. Gronowski’s ability to manage the clock and avoid turnovers will be critical against a Vanderbilt defense that has plenty of experience against more explosive offenses than the one Iowa brings into this contest.
Score Projection: Vanderbilt 23 – Iowa 20
Win Probability: Iowa 34%, Vanderbilt 66%
The clash of styles in the ReliaQuest Bowl is going to be interesting, as Vanderbilt tries to break down the defense of Iowa. I think Vandy wins a close game here, but my best bet is for the game to stay under the total, as the Hawkeyes should get another defensive battle to close out their 2025 campaign.
Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.
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