James Madison vs Texas State Pick & Prediction - 10/28/2025
Updated July 9, 2026
The James Madison Dukes will head to Texas to take on the Texas State Bobcats on Tuesday night in Sun Belt Conference action. The Dukes are already bowl eligible at 6-1 on the season and they are unbeaten in Sun Belt play as well. They will try to stay perfect in conference action here as they look to move closer to a spot in the Sun Belt championship game later in the year. Before this Tuesday Fun Belt contest, continue reading to get my James Madison vs Texas State prediction.
The JMU Dukes have one of the most impressive defenses in the Sun Belt. They are allowing just 15.6 points per game so far this season. Their run defense allows 74.3 yards per game and is one of the best in the country. Texas State is more generous on defense, giving up 31.3 points per outing. The Bobcats have firepower offensively, averaging 36.1 points per game with 230.7 rushing yards and 257.1 passing yards per game. The issue is whether or not the Bobcats can get stops.
The Dukes’ offense is impressive as well. They average 243.7 rushing yards per contest (ranked seventh in FBS) and score 32.3 points per game. Whichever team can stop the potent offense on the other side in this game could have the inside track to picking up a win here.
James Madison's Alonza Barnett III has thrown for 1,252 yards this season with nine touchdown passes and just two interceptions. He led the Dukes to a 63-point outburst in the team's most recent win over Old Dominion. Barnett will go up against Texas State's Brad Jackson, who has thrown for 1,786 yards with nine touchdowns and two picks. Both quarterbacks have been good at avoiding turnovers so far this year and will try to continue that this week.
Score Projection: James Madison 34 – Texas State 24
Win Probability: James Madison 70%, Texas State 30%
I am expecting a high-scoring game between James Madison and Texas State in the Sun Belt on Tuesday night. James Madison is coming off a eprformance where they scored over 60 points on the road against Old Dominion. While they aren't likely to score that many points again here, we should still see plenty of action on the scoreboard between these two teams. I'll take the over, as the Dukes should do the majority of the scoring in an exciting game between conference rivals.
Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.
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