The Kansas State Wildcats will face the Kansas Jayhawks in the Sunflower Showdown on Saturday at David Booth Kansas Memorial Stadium in Lawrence. This annual rivalry game between the Jayhawks and Wildcats is always a highly anticipated matchup and this year is no exception. Both teams are 2-2 in Big 12 play this season and a win here would be huge for either side. Before this contest begins, continue reading to get my Kansas State vs Kansas prediction.
Our Kansas State vs Kansas Pick
- Pick: Kansas -3.5
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Kansas Jayhawks vs Kansas State Wildcats
- Date & Time: Saturday, October 25, 2025, 12:00 PM ET
- Venue: David Booth Kansas Memorial Stadium, Lawrence, KS
- Broadcast: TNT
Key Storylines
- Quarterback Play: Kansas State's Avery Johnson has thrown for 1,561 yards, 13 touchdowns, and two interceptions this season. He has led the Wildcats to over 30 points in three straight games and will try to extend that streak against an in-state rival. Kansas' Jalon Daniels has 1,725 passing yards, 18 touchdowns, and two interceptions. Both quarterbacks have been efficient and will play a crucial role in their team's success.
- Defensive Matchup: Kansas State's defense has allowed an average of 27 points per game, while Kansas has allowed 23.6 points per game. The ability of each defense to contain the opposing offense will be key, especially with how effective both quarterbacks have been this season for these two teams.
- Recent Form: Kansas State is coming off a 41-28 victory over TCU and the Wildcats have won two of their last three games. Kansas is looking to rebound from a 42-17 loss to Texas Tech and they have dropped two of their last three games.
Betting Trends & H2H
- Both teams are 3-4 against the spread going into this matchup.
- Kansas State is 4-3 to the over so far this year.
- Kansas has had four of its first seven games stay under their totals this season.
- Kansas has a 64-53-5 lead in the all-time series against K-State. But K-State has won the last 16 games between these two programs.
Kansas State vs Kansas Model Projection
- Score Projection: Kansas State 27 – Kansas 31
- Win Probability: Kansas State 45%, Kansas 55%
Final Thoughts
This year's Sunflower Showdown is shaping up to be a closely contested game. Kansas State has dominated this rivalry in recent years, but I think that is going to change this week. K-State is 0-2 in true road games this year and should continue to struggle on the road against a Kansas team that has gone 3-1 on their home turf this year. I'll lay the points with the Jayhawks in what should be an entertaining game from Lawrence.
Jay Sanin
Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.
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