LSU Tigers vs Houston Cougars Texas Bowl Pick & Prediction - 12/27/2025
Updated July 9, 2026
The LSU Tigers and Houston Cougars will face off in the Kinder’s Texas Bowl on Saturday night. LSU enters this postseason tilt on the heels of a turbulent campaign with a 7-5 record, while Houston wraps up a strong 9-3 season looking to preserve its top-25 national ranking. The game will take place at NRG Stadium in Houston, giving the Cougars a de facto home-field advantage. Before kickoff, you can continue reading to get my LSU vs Houston prediction here.
Pick: | Houston -1.5 |
Confidence: | 4/5 |
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Houston capped the regular season at 9-3, climbing into the national rankings and showcasing balance on both sides of the ball. The Cougars’ offense has been productive, consistently putting up over 400 yards in several of their final games, while their defense sits comfortably in the middle of national efficiency charts. They’ll be eager to reach a 10th win and deliver a signature postseason victory in front of a partisan crowd.
LSU’s season has been more erratic. The Tigers started with lofty goals that faded as the season wore on, leading to a head coaching change and several key opt-outs and injuries heading into bowl season. Lane Kiffin will take over coaching the team next season, but the Tigers could struggle under interim coach Frank Wilson III.
Houston quarterback Conner Weigman has been a catalyst for the Cougars’ offensive success, passing for near 2,500 yards with over 20 touchdowns while also posing a threat on the ground. He’ll look to exploit LSU’s defensive vulnerabilities, as Weigman has announced that he will be back for next season with the Cougars.
LSU’s Michael Van Buren has thrown for over 700 yards this season, but the lack of consistent explosive plays and limited support from the run game have been concerns late in the year. Starting quarterback Garrett Nussmeier has opted out of this game, leaving a ton of extra responsibility for Van Buren and the rest of the LSU offense.
Score Projection: Houston 27 – LSU 23
Win Probability: Houston 58%, LSU 42%
I'm going to take the Houston Cougars to win and cover the spread in what is basically a home game for them in the Texas Bowl. The Cougars should have the advantage on offense, as LSU is relegated to using a backup quarterback with Nussmeier out. Houston should get to 10 wins on the season, while LSU looks ahead to its future with Lane Kiffin at the helm.
Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.
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