Memphis Tigers vs NC State Wolfpack Gasparilla Bowl Prediction - 12/19/2025
Updated July 9, 2026
As college football bowl season rolls on, the Memphis Tigers and NC State Wolfpack will play in the Gasparilla Bowl in Tampa on Friday afternoon. These teams went in opposite directions late in the regular season, but both will try to end their season with a win here. Before kickoff from Raymond James Stadium, continue reading to get my analysis for this game, including my Memphis vs NC State prediction.
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This Gasparilla Bowl pits two teams against each other that had very different ends to their regular seasons. Memphis enters with an 8-4 record and boasts one of the more explosive offenses in the FBS, ranking 34th in total offense and averaging over 34 points per game. But they closed out their regular season with three straight losses to Tulane, East Carolina, and Navy. The Tigers are now navigating a coaching transition after the departure of their head coach to Arkansas, which could impact their preparation and in-game adjustments.
NC State is 7-5 and enters off two straight wins to end their regular season. Their offense is led by quarterback CJ Bailey, who has thrown for nearly 2,900 yards and over 23 touchdowns. The Wolfpack’s red-zone efficiency is among the best in the nation, contributing to their ability to light up the scoreboard. They will need to score in bunches to keep up with the explosive offense of Memphis.
Quarterback play could be decisive in Tampa. For Memphis, Brendon Lewis is capable both as a rusher and a passer. Lewis has been key to the Tigers’ explosive style of play and red-zone scoring, though his health hasn't been a given late in the season.
CJ Bailey’s production has been central to the Wolfpack’s offensive identity. His ability to distribute the ball to a deep receiver group and rely on a solid running game keeps defenses honest. Smothers is in the transfer portal, which could impact the rushing output of the Wolfpack, putting the spotlight more on Bailey to perform.
Score Projection: NC State 31 – Memphis 27
Win Probability: NC State 58%, Memphis 42%
A lack of continuity will ultimately be the undoing of the Memphis Tigers in this game, as far as I'm concerned. NC State should be able to outperform a Memphis team that has a different coach coming in for the start of next season and will likely not be at their best in this game. I'll lay the points with NC State in the final bowl game before the College Football Playoff begins.
Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.
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