Memphis vs Rice Pick & Prediction - 10/31/2025
Updated July 9, 2026
The Memphis Tigers (7-1, 3-1 AAC) will take on the Rice Owls (4-4, 1-3 AAC) looking to build on a huge win last week. After a 34-31 comeback win over the South Florida Bulls last week, Memphis is back in the Group of Five playoff conversation. The Owls are coming off a thrilling double-overtime victory but still face an uphill battle against Memphis. Here, you can find my breakdown of this American Athletic Conference matchup, including my Memphis vs Rice prediction.
Memphis comes into this game following an impressive win over South Florida. Quarterback Brendon Lewis threw a game-winning 10-yard touchdown with just over a minute remaining to defeat USF. Memphis’ offense is averaging 37.6 points per game and has one of the better rushing attacks in the AAC.
Rice ended a three-game losing streak in a 37-34 double‐OT win over UConn in their last game. But their offensive output remains among the bottom tier in yards and points. They are averaging just 21.6 points per game and rank 110th in FBS in scoring. Rice’s option offense averages 226.0 rushing yards per game, which ranks 13th in FBS. But they can't move the ball through the air and their defense has also struggled for the most part.
Brendon Lewis has thrown for 1,644 yards, 10 touchdowns, and four interceptions this season for the Tigers. He has had a great connection with wide receiver Cortez Braham Jr., who has seven receiving touchdowns this season for the Tigers. Rice quarterback Chase Jenkins is limited in his passing workload thanks to Rice's choice to run the football first and foremost. If Rice falls behind early and is forced to throw, they may not be equipped to work their way out of such a hole.
Score Projection: Memphis 34 – Rice 17
Win Probability: Memphis 85%, Rice 15%
Memphis comes into this game in control of its own destiny in the AAC title race. If they keep winning, they will find themselves in the AAC title game. I think they will get another win here and will do so in convincing fashion to cover the spread. Rice just isn't equipped to move the ball effectively enough to steal this game from the Tigers, who will successfully build on their win over USF from last week.
Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.
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