Oklahoma vs Tennessee Pick & Prediction - 11/1/2025
Updated July 9, 2026
The Tennessee Volunteers and Oklahoma Sooners will meet on Saturday night in one of the biggest games of the weekend in college football. Both teams enter at 6-2 and this game could serve as an elimination game with respect to the College Football Playoff. Tennessee brings a high-octane offense to this home game at Knoxville’s Neyland Stadium, while Oklahoma arrives with one of the nation’s stingiest defenses. Before this clash of styles begins in Knoxville, continue reading to get my Oklahoma vs Tennessee prediction for Saturday night.
This matchup pairs a juggernaut offense against a lockdown defense. Tennessee ranks second nationally in scoring offense (45.6 ppg) and third in total offense (510.1 yds/game). Oklahoma will try and slow them down with a defense that allows just 12.5 ppg and averages 3.6 sacks per game. Tennessee must show that its offensive firepower can still thrive against an elite defense. Oklahoma must rediscover its offensive rhythm two losses in its last three games.
Both of these teams are essentially playing for their College Football Playoff lives in this contest. These teams are both ranked in the top 20 in the country, but a loss would be their third of the season and would likely put the loser behind too many teams to get back into the playoff hunt. As a result, the level of intensity in this game will be sky-high.
Tennessee signal-caller Joey Aguilar has thrown for 2,344 yards, 18 touchdowns, and just six interceptions this season. His decision-making has been excellent this year and the Vols are third in the country in passing yards per game.
Oklahoma quarterback John Mateer has passed for 1,790 yards with eight touchdowns and six interceptions. He suffered a hand injury earlier in the season and Oklahoma's offense has struggled somewhat since then. But if Mateer can reclaim his form from earlier in the season, the Sooners could steal this game on the road and keep their playoff hopes alive and well.
Score Projection: Tennessee 31 – Oklahoma 24
Win Probability: Tennessee 65%, Oklahoma 35%
The stakes in this game could not be higher and that should create some incredible entertainment from Knoxville on Saturday night. As for the outcome of the game, I think that Tennessee is going to win and cover the spread at home. The Vols' two losses this season have come against the standard bearers in the SEC, Georgia and Alabama. They should avoid a third loss here against an Oklahoma team that is trending in the wrong direction of late.
Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.
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