Vanderbilt vs Texas Pick & Prediction - 11/1/2025
Updated July 9, 2026
The Vanderbilt Commodores (7-1) will visit the Texas Longhorns (6-2) on Saturday afternoon in a huge game in the SEC. Texas enters as a home favorite, but Vanderbilt has been one of the biggest surprise teams of the season and will try to keep their College Football Playoff hopes alive with a road win. Before this game kicks off, continue reading to get my Vanderbilt vs Texas prediction for Saturday's game.
Vanderbilt has surged to a 7-1 start this season. That is their best start since 1941 and they are ranked ninth in the nation. The Commodores’ offense is guided by senior quarterback Diego Pavia, who is known for making clutch plays with both his arm and his legs. He will face one of his biggest tests yet on the road against a very good Texas defense.
Texas is 6-2 and has won three games in a row going into this contest. But the Longhorns have needed overtime to beat Kentucky and Mississippi State over their last two outings. They are back at home for this game against Vandy, but they could struggle against a much tougher opponent in the Commodores this weekend.
To make things even more chaotic for Texas, they could be without their starting quarterback for this game. Arch Manning has been practicing but is in concussion protocol after last week's win over Mississippi State. Manning hasn't been great this season but it would be disastrous for the Longhorns if he can't play.
Pavia is playing at a high level for Vandy. He ranks 12th in the nation with a QBR of 82.2 and his dual-threat capability (57.3 rushing yards per game) keeps defenses honest. Despite the last name of the quarterback on the other side, Pavia is the best quarterback in this game whether or not Manning plays.
Texas’ uncertainty at quarterback has been a story going into this game. If Manning can’t go, backup Matthew Caldwell will assume the starting role. Caldwell threw the winning pass in overtime last week in relief of Manning, but he has very limited experience. That could hurt Texas’ offense and give Vandy the edge.
Score Projection: Vanderbilt 28 – Texas 24
Win Probability: Vanderbilt 43%, Texas 57%
This is not an easy game to bet on without knowing the status of Arch Manning at quarterback for Texas. But I expect both defenses to play well in this game whether Manning is able to go or not. I'll take the points with Vandy in what should be a close game, a game that Vandy could very well win outright on the road.
Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.
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