Miami (OH) RedHawks vs Fresno State Bulldogs Arizona Bowl Prediction - 12/27/2025
Updated July 9, 2026
The Miami (OH) RedHawks and Fresno State Bulldogs are set to face off in the Snoop Dogg Arizona Bowl* on Saturday afternoon. Fresno State enters as the favorite in this first-ever meeting between the programs, and both defenses are expected to play significant roles in a contest that could be decided late. Below, we break down the matchup and you will find my Miami (OH) vs Fresno State prediction right here.
Pick: | Under 41.5 |
Confidence: | 3/5 |
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This game features a classic bowl dynamic where preparation and motivation can influence the outcome more than raw statistics. Miami (OH) is fresh off a season that saw them finish 7-6, earning a second straight Arizona Bowl appearance. However, they have dealt with roster turnover, including the departure of longtime quarterback Dequan Finn midseason and the loss of top receiver Kam Perry to the transfer portal. Their offense is going to rely on senior running back Jordan Brunson who leads the team with over 700 rushing yards this year.
Fresno State finished 8-4 thanks in large part to a defense that held opponents to their fewest yards per game in decades and created turnovers consistently. The Bulldogs’ offense is balanced and managed efficiently by quarterback E.J. Warner, but we could see Carson Conklin in his place in this contest.
Miami (OH) enters the game with freshman quarterback Thomas Gotkowski taking most of the late season snaps following the departure of Dequan Finn. Gotkowski has shown promise, completing around half of his passes for over 500 yards. His effectiveness will determine how often the RedHawks can sustain drives against a disciplined Fresno State defense that excels against the pass.
The quarterback situation could be unpredictable for the Bulldogs here. E.J. Warner presents a steadier offensive catalyst with a completion percentage near 70% and almost 2,000 passing yards this season. But we could see Conklin instead of Warner, which would make things tougher on Fresno's offense.
Score Projection: Miami (OH) 17 – Fresno State 20
Win Probability: Miami (OH) 35%, Fresno State 65%
If you like high-octane offensive football, you are probably not going to like this year's Arizona Bowl. Both teams are in disarray at the quarterback position, which should make it tougher for them to sustain success through the air. I'll take the under in this contest with that in mind.
Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.
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