North Texas Mean Green vs San Diego State Aztecs New Mexico Bowl Prediction - 12/27/2025
Updated July 9, 2026
The 2025 New Mexico Bowl between the North Texas Mean Green and San Diego State Aztecs will be a very interesting matchup on Saturday. North Texas has enjoyed a historic season with a school-record 11 wins and a top-ranked scoring offense, while San Diego State brings one of the FBS’ elite defenses and a 9-3 record to Albuquerque’s University Stadium. Here, I've taken a closer look at this matchup on the gridiron and you will find my North Texas vs San Diego State prediction below.
Pick: | Over 52.5 |
Confidence: | 4/5 |
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North Texas arrives with a historic offense, averaging 44.8 points and over 500 total yards per game, led by quarterback Drew Mestemaker and a deep receiving corps. The Mean Green established themselves as one of the nation’s most dynamic offenses, ranking second in pass yards and first in scoring this season. However, the team’s head coach and some players are navigating postseason moves, with coach Eric Morris accepting a new position and key contributors entering the transfer portal. These factors introduce uncertainty to the preparation and personnel of the Mean Green, though the offense’s firepower remains intact on paper.
San Diego State counters with a defense that ranks among the FBS’ best, surrendering just over 12 points per contest and regularly stifling high-powered attacks. The Aztecs’ disciplined unit has eight games this year holding opponents under 10 points, creating an offense vs defense showdown here. Additionally, San Diego State has running back production that could help them control tempo and keep the Mean Green offense off the field.
Drew Mestemaker has been the engine of North Texas’s aerial attack, completing over 70% of his passes for north of 4,100 yards and accounting for multiple games with three or more touchdown passes. His ability to stretch the field and find playmakers gives the Mean Green a consistent scoring threat. He is expected to play despite entering the transfer portal.
San Diego State’s quarterback situation has been less explosive. Jayden Denegal led the team in passing this year with just over 1,800 yards, but he's had surgery and won't play in this game. Instead, it will be Bert Emanuel Jr. taking the snaps for the Aztecs.
Score Projection: North Texas 31 – San Diego State 24
Win Probability: North Texas 65%, San Diego State 35%
My best bet for the New Mexico Bowl is for the game to go over the total. North Texas should have its quarterback on the field and that should mean plenty of scoring from them throughout this matchup. But the defense of the Mean Green is suspect and that should mean that both sides light up the scoreboard on Saturday.
Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.
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