Mississippi State vs Florida Pick & Prediction - 10/18/2025
Updated July 9, 2026
Mississippi State and Florida will go at it in the SEC on Saturday. Mississippi State has the better record going into this game, but Florida is favored heading into this conference matchup. Here, you will find my analysis of this game in the SEC and get my Mississippi State vs Florida prediction before kickoff in The Swamp.
Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|
Florida −9.5 | Florida −380 / MSU +290 | 51.5 |
DJ Lagway has been inconsistent at quarterback for Florida. He has nine touchdown passes but he also has seven interceptions. Lagway has to avoid turning the ball over at home for Florida to avoid being upset by the Bulldogs this weekend.
Mississippi State is led by quarterback Blake Shapen. Shapen has completed just over two-thirds of his pass attempts for the season with nine touchdowns and four interceptions. Shapen has been better than Lagway at avoiding turnovers and if that continues here, he will give his team a chance to pull off an upset.
Score Projection: Florida 28 – Mississippi State 17
Win Probability: Florida 68%, Mississippi State 32%
Florida should be able to win this game at home to get to 2-2 in SEC play. But I would prefer to take the under than to take Florida to cover the spread in this game. Both of these defenses should make life difficult for the quarterbacks in this matchup and Florida will win a defensive battle in Gainesville.
Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.
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