Missouri State vs Liberty Pick & Prediction - 11/8/2025
Updated July 9, 2026
The Missouri State Bears (5‑3, 3‑1 in Conference USA) will take on the Liberty Flames (4‑4, 3‑1 CUSA) on Saturday in Lynchburg. These teams are tied for fourth place in the Conference USA standings entering this week and both teams need a win to keep themselves in contention to reach the Conference USA title game. Here, I break down this college football game and give you my Missouri State vs Liberty prediction.
The game will be shaped by several important factors. The first of those factors is Liberty’s home‑field advantage. The Flames are 3-1 at home and 1-3 on the road this year. Liberty’s biggest strength lies in a relatively sturdy defense that is allowing 22.6 points per game. During their recent three-game winning streak, their offense has stepped up as well. The Flames have scored 89 points over their last two games and will try to put it all together to get a fourth straight victory.
Missouri State is riding three consecutive wins as well and they are 5-3 in their first season of FBS football. Their last three wins have all come against abysmal opponents in Middle Tennessee, New Mexico State, and FIU. But they still deserve a ton of credit for putting together such a strong season so early into their time at this level of competition.
Liberty quarterback Ethan Vasko has thrown for 1,406 yards, eight touchdowns, and five interceptions thus far. His passing stats don't jump off the page, but Liberty’s strength is the run and a defense that makes enough stops to win them games. Missouri State’s Jacob Clark has 1,641 yards, 13 touchdowns, and eight interceptions. The key question is whether Clark can stay disciplined and avoid mistakes when pressured by Liberty’s front seven and if Vasko can keep the offense moving if the run game stagnates.
Score Projection: Liberty 30 – Missouri State 20
Win Probability: Liberty 65% , Missouri State 35%
I think that this game will be a little too stern a test for Missouri State on Saturday afternoon. The Flames have the defense to make life miserable for the Bears through the air and the Liberty run game will wear them down over the course of four quarters. I'm going to lay the points with the Flames in this important Conference USA contest.
Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.
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